德银：亚洲冶炼行业毛利率研究 DB-asian refining margin

(25p) 01.22 英文 .pdf

FO spreads improve Asian Refining Margins

We are underweight Asian refiners. Our 2007F estimates for Asia (Sing) complex and simple refining margins (Rfm) are US$ 6.15/b & 2.75/b vs. US$5.69 and US$0.48 in 2006. The Asian complex and simple Rfm fell (-18.7%) and (-85%) in 2006. Returns on Asian refiners were a mixed bag in 2006 with SK Corp (+28%), FPCC (+18.7%) and others, mostly soft: S-Oil (-3%), Thai Oil (-21%), SPC (-9.17%) and Petron (-6.8%). For 2007F, we prefer simple to complex refineries as we expect FO spreads to improve in 2007F vs. 2006 due to lower oil prices.