Citigroup 花旗：气候变化对证券投资的影响

120页 January 19, 2007

Climatic Consequences Investment Implications of a Changing Climate
➤ Investment Issue — For investors, the issue is not whether climate change is occurring. Today a variety of entities (governments, regulators, corporations, and individuals) are reacting to the perceived climate change threat, creating a number of near-term opportunities

Table of Contents

Investment Summary .......................................................................................................................... 3
420,000 Years of Climate Change ....................................................................................................... 7
Civilization and Climate...................................................................................................................... 10
Climatic Consequences..................................................................................................................... 14
Key Climatic Variables ..................................................................................................................... 15
Rising Sea Levels............................................................................................................................... 15
Droughts ............................................................................................................................................ 16
A Hurricane Effect?............................................................................................................................ 17
Adaptation vs. Mitigation .................................................................................................................... 19
GHG Abatement Is Not Necessarily “Green”....................................................................................... 20
The Regulatory Response.................................................................................................................. 22
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol ...................... 22
The U.S. Regulatory Response ............................................................................................................ 24
The European Regulatory Response..................................................................................................... 28
Exhibit 1: Emissions Trading — the Concept...................................................................................... 31
The Physical Implications ................................................................................................................. 33
Heating, Cooling, and “Global Warming”............................................................................................ 34
Drought and Water Shortages .............................................................................................................. 39
Climate Change and Property Insurance............................................................................................... 41
The Regulatory Implications............................................................................................................. 43
Power Generation in a Carbon-Regulated World.................................................................................. 43
Exhibit 2: Carbon Emissions Reduction Technologies......................................................................... 47
Exhibit 3: Micro-Generation............................................................................................................... 54
Automobiles and Emissions Regulations.............................................................................................. 56
Alternative Fuels and Renewable Energy............................................................................................. 59
Exhibit 4: An Ethanol Production Process........................................................................................... 60
Building, Housing, and Efficiency Standards ....................................................................................... 75
The Behavioral Implications ............................................................................................................. 79
Consumer Behavior............................................................................................................................ 79
Litigant Behavior ............................................................................................................................... 83
Investor Behavior ............................................................................................................................... 86
Corporate Behavior ............................................................................................................................. 89
Appendix A: World GHG Emissions Flow Chart............................................................................. 99
Appendix B: Some Theories About Climate Change...................................................................... 100
Appendix C: Climate Change and Civilization............................................................................... 103
Appendix D: Climatic Consequences Companies........................................................................... 106
Appendix E: Companies by Sector.................................................................................................. 113
Appendix F: Companies by Country .............................................................................................. 114
Appendix G: Performance .............................................................................................................. 115
Citigroup Investment Research would like to acknowledge the contribution made by Fred
Wellington and Andrew Aulisi of the World Resources Institute (WRI) in preparing this report.
WRI is an independent environmental think tank.
Citigroup, Inc. is a financial supporter of the World Resources Institute, and Todd Thomson,
Chairman and CEO, Citigroup Global Wealth Management, serves on WRI’s board of
directors.