In this paper, we investigate two fiscal policy options to mitigate fiscal pressure arising from an ageing of Australian population: pension cuts or tax hikes. Using a computable overlapping generations model, we find that while the two policy options achieve the same fiscal goal, the macroeconomic and welfare outcomes differ significantly. Future generations prefer pension cuts, whereas current generations prefer tax hikes to finance age-related government spending commitments. Interestingly, taxing consumption or income results in opposing effects on macroeconomic aggregates and welfare across different skill types of households. Increases in the consumption tax rate have positive effects on labour supply, domestic assets and output per capita (similarly to pension cuts), but reduce the welfare of low income households most. Conversely, increases in progressive income or payroll taxes have negative effects on most macroeconomic aggregates but reduce the welfare of low income households least. Our results highlight the intra- and inter-generational conflicts of interest and political constraints when implementing any structural fiscal reforms.

在本文中，我们研究了两种缓解澳大利亚人口老龄化带来的财政压力的财政政策选择:削减养老金或提高税收。利用可计算的世代交叠模型，我们发现，虽然两种政策选择实现相同的财政目标，但宏观经济和福利结果显著不同。未来的几代人更喜欢削减养老金，而现在的几代人更喜欢增税来为与年龄相关的政府支出承诺融资。有趣的是，对消费或收入征税会对不同技能类型的家庭的宏观经济总量和福利产生相反的影响。提高消费税会对劳动力供应、国内资产和人均产出产生积极影响(类似于削减养老金)，但在很大程度上降低了低收入家庭的福利。相反，增加累进所得税或工资税对大多数宏观经济总量有负面影响，但对低收入家庭的福利减少最少。我们的研究结果突出了在实施结构性财政改革时，代际和代际利益冲突以及政治约束。