GS 高盛-中国每日报告 07.27

China-Daily-Insights 07.27 10页

Today’s focus
China: Portfolio Strategy: HSCEI target: 17,000 by end-2008
Shenzhen Expressway (0548.HK) Buy: Looking ahead, re-rating to resume; initiate with Buy
Baidu.com, Inc. (BIDU): Costs outpace accelerating revenue growth
Hunan Nonferrous Metals (2626.HK): Tougher competition, near our target price, downgrade to Neutral
Headline news
Shanghai bourse revises bonds trade rules (China Daily)
Chinese consumer confidence rebounds (China Daily)
Major indices break all-time high record (China Daily)
China's Debt Rating Upgraded by Moody's to A1 (Bloomberg)
N-plants on tap (Shanghai Daily)
China: Portfolio Strategy: HSCEI target: 17,000 by end-2008, Thomas Deng, CFA
• HSCEI target: 17,000 by end-2008E: We believe strong growth prospects at both macro and corporate levels could propel the H-share index to 17,000 by end-2008E, implying 27.4% potential full-period price returns. That said, we envisage bumps along the uptrend-given expanding multiples which imply optimistic growth and risk premium assumptions-and the government's tightening bias as a precaution against the econo