调控常态下地产股掘金――2008 年房地产行业投资策略

目 录
1. 宏观经济带动房地产市场的发展.................................................................................................4
2. 我国房地产行业总体运行状况良好.............................................................................................6
2.1 房地产开发投资增速明显...................................................................................................................................6
2.2 供给仍不能在短期内大幅释放............................................................................................................................7
2.3 建设及销售情况...................................................................................................................................................8
3. 调控仍将是常态.............................................................................................................................9
3.1 2006 年调控政策及影响.....................................................................................................................................9
3.2 2007 年调控政策及影响...................................................................................................................................10
4. 影响未来市场变化的主要因素分析...........................................................................................12
4.1 保障性住房及中小户型供应量的增加对市场的冲击.......................................................................................12
4.2 宏观调控政策......................................................................................................................................................13
4.3 人民币升值..........................................................................................................................................................15
5. 行业未来总体判断及2008 年关注热点.....................................................................................17
5.1 行业总体判断......................................................................................................................................................17
5.2 我们关注地产公司的关键：干净的土地+有效的能力.....................................................................................19
6. 行业投资策略及重点公司评述...................................................................................................20
6.1 估值不低，但业绩增长值得期待.......................................................................................................................20
6.2 选股策略..............................................................................................................................................................21
6.3 重点公司评述......................................................................................................................................................21

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