Nigeria is among many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization since 1986 in the hope that reforms emphasizing price incentives will encourage producers to respond. Hitherto, the reforms seem to have introduced greater uncertainty into the market given increasing rates of price volatility. This study therefore models supply responses in Nigerian agriculture that include the standard arguments as well as price risk. The data come from the AGROSTAT system of the statistical division of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Federal Ministry of Agriculture statistical bulletins,Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins, Federal Office of Statistics Agricultural Survey Manual and the World Bank Africa Development Indicators. The data are analysed using autoregressive distributed lag and error correction models. The results indicate thatproducers are more responsive not only to price but to price risk and exchange rate in the structural adjustment programme (SAP) period than in the commodity marketing board (CMB) period. Following deregulation, price risk needs to be meaningfully reduced for pulse and export crops, especially cowpea and cocoa.

尼日利亚是自1986年开始实行农业自由化的许多非洲国家之一。这些国家希望，强调价格激励的改革将鼓励生产者作出反应。迄今为止，鉴于价格波动性不断上升，这些改革似乎给市场带来了更大的不确定性。因此，本研究模拟了尼日利亚农业的供应反应，包括标准论点和价格风险。这些数据来自粮食及农业组织(粮农组织)统计司的农业统计系统、联邦农业部统计公报、尼日利亚中央银行统计公报、联邦统计办公室农业调查手册和世界银行非洲发展指标。数据分析使用自回归分布滞后和误差修正模型。结果表明，生产者在结构调整方案(SAP)期间比在商品销售委员会(CMB)期间更能对价格、价格风险和汇率作出反应。在放松管制之后，需要切实降低脉冲和出口作物的价格风险，特别是豇豆和可可。