目录
一．需求进一步释放要靠收入增长..........................................3
1．城镇有效需求得到基本满足......................................................................................3
2．收入增长是农村需求释放必要条件..........................................................................6
3．价格是影响省区间消费差异的重要原因..................................................................6
二．低机会成本散养农户决定原奶供给价格和结构特征........................7
1．散养农户更有竞争力..................................................................................................8
2．持续投入和单产提升仍能保证原奶增长................................................................10
3．09、10年原奶供应谨慎看多，后备牛有断档隐忧................................................11
4．原奶供应组织结构和地域结构特征难以改变........................................................12
5．奶农要价能力将长期偏弱，原奶价格波动源自多因素........................................15
三．乳制品供应结构.....................................................16
1．约一半原奶用于液态奶，UHT和工业粉各自领域称王.........................................16
2．供需特征决定UHT仍将是液态奶主打产品............................................................18
3．产品特性决定酸奶比巴氏奶更受欢迎....................................................................20
4．奶粉－－工业大包奶粉下游需求旺盛....................................................................21

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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-5-27 20:59:53编辑过]