【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月亚洲棕榈油行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：
2010 palm oil sector outlook. We continue to believe that average palm oil
prices will be 11% YoY higher, at RM2,500, in 2010, but we expect huge
price volatility throughout the year. We believe palm oil prices will be
seasonally strong in early 2010, but this may not be sustainable going
into 2Q.
■ Seasonally strong in early 2010: 1) Five-year low global oil seed stock-touse
ratios; 2) 1Q is a seasonally weak production period for palm oil;
3) biodiesel mandates are expected to kick off in the EU and South America;
4) Malaysia’s replanting programme could have removed 3% of the country’s
supply.
■ Palm oil prices are expected to be under pressure in 2Q due to recordhigh
soya harvests from South America, possibly up 30% YoY, and rising
palm oil output. What could derail our thesis? 1) Crude oil price spikes,
2) weather disruptions, causing a drop in yields and leading to a shortage,
3) weak USD supports commodity prices and 4) speculation in the futures
market.
■ We prefer Indonesian stocks (OVERWEIGHT), which we assess as
cheaper than Malaysian ones (UNDERWEIGHT), have higher beta and are
more leveraged to palm oil prices. Our top sector pick remains Indofood Agri
(IFAR). For a short-term momentum play, Golden Agri, Indofood Agri and
IOI Corp fit the bill.