Climate volatility affects agricultural variability, and extreme climate outcomes have the potential to detrimentally affect food supply and prices in a given country. International trade has the potential to reduce the impacts of climate-induced food production variability, although it may further expose the country to international price volatility. This study focuses on Tanzania and finds that global production volatility currently has very little effect on domestic grain prices due to the country’s limited integration with the international grains market. Almost all the price volatility in grains is attributable to domestic production volatility. At the same time, an export ban that was a response to the 2007-2008 food price crisis increases potential domestic grains price volatility. Rural agricultural households that are net sellers of grains, or rely on revenue from grains production as their primary source of income, may be particularly vulnerable to high income volatility through climate-induced production variability. If Tanzania experiences extremely positive shocks to grains production – due to exceptionally good climate outcomes for example – total revenue from grain falls by 2 percent under the 2001 national trade regime, with the revenue decline becoming 5 percent if there is an export ban on grains.

气候变化影响农业的变化，极端气候结果可能对特定国家的粮食供应和价格产生不利影响。国际贸易有可能减少气候引起的粮食生产变化的影响，尽管它可能使该国进一步受到国际价格波动的影响。这项研究集中在坦桑尼亚，发现由于该国与国际粮食市场的整合有限，目前全球生产波动对国内粮食价格的影响很小。几乎所有的谷物价格波动都归因于国内生产的波动。与此同时，为应对2007-2008年粮食价格危机而出台的出口禁令，增加了潜在的国内粮食价格波动。作为粮食净销售者或将粮食生产收入作为主要收入来源的农村农业家庭，可能特别容易因气候引起的生产变化而受到收入高度波动的影响。如果坦桑尼亚的粮食生产受到极其积极的冲击——例如，由于气候变化带来的异常良好的结果——根据2001年的国家贸易制度，来自粮食的总收入将下降2%，而如果对粮食实行出口禁令，收入将下降5%。