One of the growing agricultural subsectors in developing countries is livestock. Livestock and livestock products account for a third of the agricultural gross output. However, the lack of viable livestock market information systems to increase efficiency of markets and support the decision making of traders, pastoralists, and policy makers are still an obstacle for a full development of this subsector. It is along these lines that the USAID, through the Global Livestock-Collaborative Research Support Program, supported the introduction of livestock market information systems in Kenya and Tanzania in 2003, and later in Mali in 2007. The overall objective of the dissertation is to test for cattle markets integration in three African developing countries of Mali, Kenya, and Tanzania. One way of assessing the efficiency of market and the impacts of liberalization policies is to test for market integration and price transmission. We also analyzed price leadership among the markets in each of the three case studies. Autoregressive models (vector autoregressive models and error correction model) were used to determine the level of cattle market integration. The results show a low level of cattle markets integration in Mali. The cattle markets in Mali are more-or-less independent with regard to price transmission among markets. Kenya cattle markets showed a good level of integration among the markets. Chepareria market in the Rift Valley region (west) seemed to lead other markets in price signal transmission. Tanzanian cattle markets exhibited a higher level of integration with Pugu market, in Dar es Salaam, leading other cattle markets in price signal transmission. In conclusion, the cattle markets in Tanzania and Kenya appeared to have a relatively higher level of market integration compared to the cattle markets in Mali. There is a reasonable belief that the time the livestock market information system has been in place, in each country, played a role in the market integration process. More time and better communications seem to have allowed the market actors to learn arbitrage skills and strengthen their trade relationships that ultimately led to the market integration.
畜牧业是发展中国家日益增长的农业分部门之一。畜产品占农业总产值的三分之一。然而,缺乏可行的牲畜市场信息系统来提高市场效率并支持贸易商、牧民和政策制定者的决策,仍然是这一分部门充分发展的障碍。按照这些思路,美国国际开发署通过全球畜牧业合作研究支持计划(Global livestock - collaborative Research Support Program)于2003年支持在肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚引入了畜牧业市场信息系统,随后又于2007年在马里引入了该系统。本论文的总体目标是测试三个非洲发展中国家(马里、肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚)的牛市场整合。评估市场效率和自由化政策影响的一种方法是检验市场一体化和价格传导。我们还分析了这三个案例中的价格领导。采用自回归模型(向量自回归模型和误差修正模型)确定肉牛市场一体化水平。结果显示,马里的牛市场一体化程度较低。在市场之间的价格传导方面,马里的牲畜市场或多或少是独立的。肯尼亚的牛市场表现出市场之间高度的一体化。裂谷地区(西部)的Chepareria市场似乎在价格信号传输方面领先于其他市场。坦桑尼亚牛市场与达累斯萨拉姆的普谷市场的融合程度较高,在价格信号传输方面领先于其他牛市场。总之,坦桑尼亚和肯尼亚的牛市场与马里的牛市场相比,市场一体化程度似乎较高。人们有理由相信,在每个国家建立牲畜市场信息系统的时间在市场一体化过程中发挥了作用。更多的时间和更好的沟通似乎让市场参与者学会了套利技巧,并加强了他们的贸易关系,最终导致了市场一体化。

推荐
回帖
发帖
看本版