【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国制药行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：73
        【目录或简介】：
1Q'10 EPS should meet expectations
US pharma EPS performance should meet expectations in 1Q'10, but will likely be
uninspiring overall. Currency translations may provide a modest top-line benefit in
the quarter, yr/yr, but will be a substantial negative sequentially, hence remain a
source of quarterly performance volatility. At current rates, Fx will hurt top-line
performance in the back half of the year and could negatively impact EPS for the
group by up to 5% for the full year. However, investors will likely remain focused
on pipeline dataflow, margin leverage, and the strategic use of rising CF.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Results
Top picks
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N),USD26.25 Buy
Merck & Co. (MRK.N),USD36.97 Buy
Pfizer (PFE.N),USD17.25 Buy
Companies featured
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N),USD26.25 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.84 2.18 2.38
P/E (x) 11.8 12.0 11.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 6.2 5.3
Eli Lilly (LLY.N),USD36.84 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 4.43 4.71 4.59
P/E (x) 7.7 7.8 8.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.1 4.8 4.6
Merck & Co. (MRK.N),USD36.97 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 3.26 3.39 3.93
P/E (x) 9.1 10.9 9.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.1 4.9 4.0
Pfizer (PFE.N),USD17.25 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.02 2.21 2.41
P/E (x) 7.8 7.8 7.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 3.9 3.5
Global Markets Research Company
NT prospects generally support earnings and multiple improvement
The recent PFE/WYE and MRK/SGP mergers have dramatically enhanced the
earnings outlooks for both companies through the combination of the significant
synergy opportunities, and the business diversifications they create. The
combined effect of these benefits substantially improves cash flows levels and
their visibility, and eliminates the anticipated earnings cliff. Pharma EPS declined
in ‘09, but look staged for a recovery to high-single-digit growth (on a weighted
basis) in ‘10 and ‘11, while valuations remain at a substantial discount of 35% to
the S&P 500.
HC reform unlikely to drive changes in 2010 EPS guidance
We estimate that the earnings impact of the HC legislation will be modestly
negative in the near term (~3% EPS downside per year on average though 2014),
but do not anticipate any changes to 2010 guidance ranges as a result. Positive
offsets from expansion of the insured population are less visible at this time, and
ultimately will be tied to the industry’s new product flow. Net/net, in our view, the
financial impact of the HC reform legislation will clearly be manageable over the
longer term.
New business models will be key to an improved rating for the sector
The dramatic changes in the pharmaceutical industry operating model are likely to
continue to improve the industry’s earnings outlook, as industry overcapacity is
substantially reduced, and major investments in R&D and advertising and
promotional spending are reevaluated and managed aggressively for improved
returns. At the same time, the industry may be heading into a period in 2010 and
2011, where it will be reporting out on a great deal of clinical trial data, which if
encouraging, could meaningfully improve longer-term revenue prospects, and
drive multiple expansion. In the meantime, from diversification efforts both
geographically and among businesses, a business model that is more persistent
over time and less prone to boom and bust than the US pharma blockbuster
market, may also improve earnings and multiples.
With valuations at historical lows, new business models could drive upside
In our view, multiple expansion for the drug group is dependent on increased
persistency of revenues via a diversification of product mix and geographies, as
well as a reduced and flexible cost structure. These improvements will require
consolidation and acquisitions. The DB weighted drug index trades at a 35%
discount to the market, based upon ’10 forecasts, and dividend yields are relatively
high. Hence, the primary risk to the group is likely the opportunity cost of better
investments; it is not necessarily absolute price declines.

Table of Contents
Investment Thesis ............................................................................. 4
Healthcare Reform............................................................................. 6
1Q10 US Pharma EPS Preview ......................................................... 8
Bristol-Myers Squibb............................................................................................................17
Eli Lilly.................................................................................................................................29
Merck..................................................................................................................................42
Pfizer...................................................................................................................................56