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论坛 计量经济学与统计论坛 五区 计量经济学与统计软件
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2006-04-30
计算VaR (Vale at risk) 时, 已经知道density function(不是normal 和 t, 查表得不到), 在95% 置信度下,如何计算percentile level? 需要用什嘛软件? 多谢.
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2006-5-1 02:28:00
You can divide the probability support into G (say G=2000) equi-length intervals. Then compute the area since you have the (Empirical ?) density function(curve?). The value for which the cumulative area is 95% (5%, depending whether you start from the left or the right) is the desired value.  

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-1 2:29:10编辑过]

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2006-5-1 09:42:00
已经知道density function还有啥可算的啊,,
如果不知道,,随便弄个gauss kernel评估一下,,就行了..一般软件都直接给出,,在95% 置信度下,
当然2楼说的也可以..

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2006-5-1 12:41:00

To zhaosweden and hangover:

Thank you two.

I want to use RiskMetrics to calculate VaR and assme the error is mixed normal distribution. The prob density fuction is g(x)=p*f1(u1, segma1) + (1-p) f2(u2, segma2). I will use MLE to estimate the five parameters and get the density function. But it does not make much sense if I only calcuate condition variance; then use VaR=1.65* CONDITIONAL VARIANCE. I also need to use the definition of VaR to calculate percentile level of mixed normal distribution and get the desire value.

zhaosweden is right, but the process is a little bit complex. Could you tell me how to use some specfic software to solve this problem? Does Eviews work? Could you explain in more details?

Many thanks in advance.

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2006-5-1 19:43:00
I do not know whether Eviews is OK. If you use that software, I guess you must make your own code(within Eviews). When comes to such question, you have to step into the detail.  

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-1 19:44:09编辑过]

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2006-5-2 00:36:00
Will  any other software work? I do need sove this problem quickly.  Aslo I am not good at programming. A big headache!
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