Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................................... 4
Valuation — Mid-cycle analysis shows 27% potential upside ................. 6
Macro picture brightening (short-term) .................................................... 19
Volume uplift from end to de-stocking ..................................................... 21
Price support unlikely to last ..................................................................... 38
Raw Material costs — benefits far from uniform, and may be short-lived
....................................................................................................................... 41
Restructuring — another earnings lever but long-term success relies on
pricing power............................................................................................... 44
Company Profiles........................................................................................ 45
Air Liquide.................................................................................................... 46
Akzo Nobel................................................................................................... 47
BASF............................................................................................................. 49
Bayer ............................................................................................................ 50
Clariant ......................................................................................................... 51
Croda ............................................................................................................ 53
DSM............................................................................................................... 54
Johnson Matthey......................................................................................... 55
K+S ............................................................................................................... 57
Lanxess ........................................................................................................ 59
Linde............................................................................................................. 60
Rhodia .......................................................................................................... 61
Solvay........................................................................................................... 62
Syngenta ...................................................................................................... 63
Umicore ........................................................................................................ 64
Wacker Chemie............................................................................................ 65
Yara............................................................................................................... 67
Valuation Methodology and Risks............................................................. 68