UBS：中国的储蓄 利率 Deposits, Rates and All That

UBS Investment Research　Asian Focus

27 June 2007　　　　5页

There are three schools of magic.
One: State a tautology, then ring the changes on its corollaries – that’s
philosophy.
Two: Record many facts. Try to find a pattern. Then make a wrong guess at the
next fact – that’s science.
Three: Be aware that you live in a malevolent universe controlled by Murphy’s
Law, sometimes offset by Brewster’s Factor – that’s engineering.
— Robert A. Heinlein
27 June 2007

Do we really care?
Over the past week a couple of pieces of China news have jumped across investors’ radar screens. First,
newly released data show that mainland commercial bank savings deposits fell outright in April and May by
around RMB400 billion, the first sustained two-month decline since the beginning of the decade – raising
fears that money is rushing out of banks in China, potentially destabilizing the financial system.
Second, there is a great deal of discussion in the financial press that China will remove the current 20%
withholding income tax on deposit interest earnings (together, of course