GS 高盛-中国每日报告 07.25

China-Daily-Insights 07.25 11页

Today’s focus
GS China monthly indicators update: Growth accelerated in June
Industrial Bank (601166.SS): Multiple engines to drive earnings growth; initiate with Neutral
Asia Pacific: Energy: Oil Services: Aban Offshore a better way to lever consolidation theme in Asia
ZTE Corporation (H) (0763.HK): Healthy TD and handset outlook; tougher overseas competition
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (ADR) (EDU): 4QFY07 results: a weaker quarter, probably not a weaker trend
Pacific Basin Shipping (2343.HK): Crystallizing fleet valuations
Headline news
China to expand basic urban health insurance (China Daily)
China consumes record amount of crude and refined oil in first half (Xinhua)
China puts new curbs on processing trade (Xinhua)
China Will `Soon' Allow Insurers to Increase Investment Abroad (Bloomberg)
GS China monthly indicators update: Growth accelerated in June, Hong Liang
• Readings of our activity indicators suggest that June growth momentum accelerated. The GSCA grew by 12.6% year on year (yoy) in June, up from 12.4% yoy in May. The quarter-on-quarter (qoq); seasonally-adjusted growth accelerated to 12.0% qoq from 9.9% qoq. Among the GSCA components, stronger readings in industrial production, fixed asset investment, electricity production, and freight transportation data were the main factors driving the index up. Meanwhile, the CEMAC-GS Coincident Indicator also picked up to 102.48 from 102.45.
• Our CEMAC-GS Leading Indicator suggests growth is likely to remain robust. The CEMAC-GS Leading Indicator remained flattish at 103.18, compared with 103.33 in May. Strong readings in the Equity Market Index, Logistics Index and the Consumer Expectations Index were offset by more moderate data in the number of new projects started, interest rate spread and land area developed.