英文文献：Climate Change and Food Security to 2030: A Global Economy-wide Perspective-《到2030年的气候变化和粮食安全:全球经济视角》
英文文献作者：Ernesto Valenzuela,Kym Anderson
英文文献摘要：
Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households who comprise most of the world?’s poor and whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses a global economy-wide model to assess the expected (in some cases positive) effects on temperate zone crop productivity and the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. The net effect of those combined shocks on the agricultural sector?’s competitiveness in any developing country is an economy-wide empirical matter, since unskilled workers are employed in nonfarm as well as farm activities. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results provide a range of consequences for international agricultural prices and for national food consumption, net farm income and economic welfare.

最近对气候变化对发展中国家农业可能产生的不利影响进行的分析，引发了人们对粮食安全的担忧，尤其是对占世界贫困人口多数、农作物产量预计将下降的农户而言。本研究使用全球经济范围模型来评估对温带作物生产力的预期(在某些情况下是积极的)影响，以及发展中国家产量下降对农产品价格造成的上行压力。还模拟了热带地区较高的温度和湿度对发展中国家非技术工人生产力的预期负面影响。在任何发展中国家，这些联合冲击对农业部门竞争力的净影响都是一个经济范围的经验问题，因为非农业和农业活动都雇用非熟练工人。鉴于气候变化可能产生的影响的不确定性程度，我们的模型考虑了一系列产量、生产率和劳动力冲击。研究结果对国际农产品价格、国家粮食消费、农业净收入和经济福利提供了一系列后果。