Chicago, MIT, Harvard, Princeton, Stanford 五大牛校对econ phd initial placement 的回归分析。

用micro, macro, metrics(计量）， admission 排名， GRE， 性别， 本科院校， 有否本科经济学背景，国籍等作自变量

用OLS, ordered probit, binary probit models

发表在2007年的AER（American Economics Review), 估计对admission committee 影响挺大的

呵呵，没想到这么(nowaday)简单的模型还能上AER吧。。。

不过，五大门派的五大牛人合作写的，加上AER审稿是single－blinded，（referee可以知道作者是谁，反之不然），而且data都是legally confidential（学生档案）. 估计也只能这样了

http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2007/0105_0800_0603.pdf

Abstract：

Our results indicate that students’ grades in required core courses are highly correlated across subjects. The Ph.D. admissions committee’s evaluation of a student predicts first-year grades and Ph.D. completion, but not job placement. First-year performance is a strong predictor of Ph.D. completion. Most importantly, we find that first-year Micro and Macro grades are statistically significant predictors of student job placement, even conditional on Ph.D. completion. Conditional on first-year grades, GRE scores, foreign citizenship, sex, and having a prior Masters degree do not predict job placement. Students who attended elite undergraduate universities and liberal arts colleges are more likely to be placed in top ranked academic jobs.