目 录
1. 牛市基础微妙变化····················································2
1.1 企业盈利增长：紧缩政策放松会提前？···············································2
1.2 升值加快和热钱流出···········································································3
1.3 通胀高企中的金融脱媒········································································4
2. 短期超调可能性·······················································5
3. 行业选择关键词：“确定性”和“反弹”··················8
3.1 阶段性偏好“确定性”········································································9
3.2 中期关注全球经济企稳、国内紧缩放松后“反弹”最大的行业········· 11
4. 申万策略股票组合··················································13
附录：1 月市场表现回顾·············································15
1. 市场整体表现：漫天飞雪飞不去························································15
2. 风格板块：中小盘股，中高市盈率股，低价股和亏损股表现较好······16
3. 行业板块：农林牧渔表现异常突出·····················································17
4. 市场估值回落·····················································································18
5. 风格板块：大盘绩优股估值回落明显，微利股估值风险加重··············19
6. 估值来看，稳定增长类估值继续提高·················································20
7. 估值的国际比较：港股AH 价差过山车··············································22