Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Abbreviations xv
Overview 1
Chapter 1 Prospects for the Global Economy 15
Financial markets 19
Outlook for high-income OECD countries 24
Outlook for the developing countries 27
World trade 36
Commodity markets 39
Key risks and uncertainties 45
Long-term prospects and poverty forecast 46
Chapter 2 The Commodity Boom: Longer-Term Prospects 51
Characteristics of the current commodity price boom 53
The roots of the boom in commodity prices 57
Long-term demand prospects 64
Long-term supply prospects 74
Projections 85
Conclusions 89
Chapter 3 Dealing with Changing Commodity Prices 95
Commodity dependence and growth 98
Managing primary commodity booms 102
Poverty impacts of higher commodity prices 113
Dealing with high food and fuel prices 121
The international response to high commodity prices 127
Conclusions 131
Technical Annex: Sensitivity Analysis 132
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Contents
Appendix: Regional Economic Prospects 141
East Asia and the Pacific 141
Europe and Central Asia 147
Latin America and the Caribbean 153
Middle East and North Africa 159
South Asia 166
Sub-Saharan Africa 171