Risk Assessment and Evaluation of Predictions

Editors: Mei-Ling Ting Lee, Mitchell Gail, Ruth Pfeiffer, Glen Satten, Tianxi Cai, Axel Gandy



Comprehensively covers clinical risk analysis and risk prediction in the host of fields in clinical medicine, including cancer and cardiovascular disease

New survival and regression analysis techniques discussed

Applies directly to areas of statistical genetics and marker identification

Methods of risk analysis and the outcome of particular evaluations and predictions are covered in detail in this proceedings volume, whose contributions are based on invited presentations from Professor Mei-Ling Ting Lee's 2011 symposium on Risk Analysis and the Evaluation of Predictions. This symposium was held at the University of Maryland in October of 2011. Risk analysis is the science of evaluating health, environmental, and engineering risks resulting from past, current, or anticipated, future activities. The use of these evaluations include to provide information for determining regulatory actions to limit risk, present scientific evidence in legal settings, evaluate products and potential liabilities within private organizations, resolve World Trade disputes amongst nations, and educate the public concerning particular risk issues. Risk analysis is an interdisciplinary science that relies on epidemiology and laboratory studies, collection of exposure and other field data, computer modeling, and related social, economic and communication considerations. In addition, social dimensions of risk are addressed by social scientists.

Table of contents (22 chapters)

Non-proportionality of Hazards in the Competing Risks Framework

Semiparametric Inference on the Absolute Risk Reduction and the Restricted Mean Survival Difference

Connecting Threshold Regression and Accelerated Failure Time Models

Residuals and Functional Form in Accelerated Life Regression Models

Neyman, Markov Processes and Survival Analysis

Quantiles of Residual Survival

Methods for Evaluating Prediction Performance of Biomarkers and Tests

Estimating Improvement in Prediction with Matched Case-Control Designs

ROC Analysis for Multiple Markers with Tree-Based Classification

Assessing Discrimination of Risk Prediction Rules in a Clustered Data Setting

Time-Dependent AUC with Right-Censored Data: A Survey

Subgroup Specific Incremental Value of New Markers for Risk Prediction

Assessing the Effects of Imprinting and Maternal Genotypes on Complex Genetic Traits

Competing Risks Models and Breast Cancer: A Brief Review

Quantifying Relative Potency in Dose-Response Studies

Development and Validation of Exposure Biomarkers to Dietary Contaminants Mycotoxins: A Case for Aflatoxin and Impaired Child Growth

Pharmaceutical Risk Assessment and Predictive Enrichment to Maximize Benefit and Minimize Risk: Issues in Product Life Cycle Evaluation

A Multiple Imputation Approach for the Evaluation of Surrogate Markers in the Principal Stratification Causal Inference Framework

Mapping Return Values of Extreme Wind Speeds

Decision Analysis Methods for Selecting Consumer Services with Attribute Value Uncertainty

Evaluating Incremental Values from New Predictors with Net Reclassification Improvement in Survival Analysis

Erratum