Contents
3 Sector anatomy – presentation of the sector
3 Products sold
4 Sector anatomy – performance and valuation
4 Focus on two main changes foreseen in Belgian Telecoms
5 Sector – leading indicators
6 Investment summary: good vs bad maturity
8 Key issues
9 Mobile market: high prices to drop / low competition to heighten
9 Belgian market: too perfect to last
13 A more forceful regulator and a potential new entrant
17 Competition between existing players: possible intensification
20 Data usage: Belgium behind the curve, good and bad news!
23 Financial performance: at best in line with the rest of Europe
24 More capex to come
25 Fixed broadband: between a rock and a hard place
25 Market profile: one of the worst combinations in Europe
26 Pricing ranks among the most highest on the continent
26 Belgacom’s market share: big and small
29 Price / Product: Belgacom more expensive than Telenet on bunldes
32 Belgacom: maturity with rising risk
32 Business diversification: a questionable risk/reward profile
33 Balance sheet: the worst of all worlds
35 Earnings: difficulties ahead
36 Sell recommendation, given worsening risk/reward profile
37 Mobistar: (slowly) falling angel
37 Economic and regulatory environment: resilience in doubt
39 Strategic issue: managing the corner
40 Balance sheet and shareholder return: the upside is behind us
41 Earnings: already on the high end
42 Sell recommendation: ongoing derating appears justified