英文文献：Unit Roots, TV-STARs, and the Commodity Terms of Trade: A Further Assessment of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis-单位根、电视明星和商品贸易条件:对普雷比什-辛格假说的进一步评估
英文文献作者：Balagtas, Joseph Valdes,Holt, Matthew T.
英文文献摘要：
This paper examines the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, that is, the hypothesis of a long-run decline in the prices of primary commodity prices relative to that of manufactured goods, by considering nonlinear alternatives. Specifically, in this paper we use bootstrap procedures to test the linear unit root model against models belonging to the family of smooth transition autoregressions (STARs) for 24 commodities, 1900-98. In eighteen cases we reject the linear null at usual significance levels. In fourteen cases we are able to successfully fit STAR-type models. Simulation results show there is very little support for the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

摘要本文研究了普雷维什-辛格假设，即初级商品价格相对于制成品价格的长期下降假设，并考虑了非线性替代。具体地说，在本文中，我们使用bootstrap程序来检验线性单位根模型和属于平滑过渡自回归(STARs)家族的模型，针对1900-98年的24种商品。在18种情况下，我们在通常的显著性水平上拒绝线性零。在14种情况下，我们能够成功地拟合星型模型。仿真结果表明，对普雷维什-辛格假设的支持很少。