Table of Contents
Investment thesis .....................................................................3
First part – we forecast low combined ratios on a reported
basis ..........................................................................................5
Low inflation leads to better underwriting results .......................................................7
3Q 09 large nat cat and man-made losses forecast.......................................................7
Consequence of low combined ratios ..........................................................................8
2Q 09 US results: unfavourable claims ratio offset by reserve releases ......................9
Earnings revision – lowering COR due to lower inflation.........................................10
Sensitivity of lower inflation for P&C business ...................11
Sensitivity analysis of PT Dec 10 & 11E EPS to investment returns and combined
ratios ..........................................................................................................................14
Group MCEV roll forward.......................................................19
Allianz......................................................................................23
Munich Re ...............................................................................24
ERGO ........................................................................................................................25
ERGO’s......................................................................................................................26
P&C is the core of profitability..................................................................................26
Munich Re: 3Q 09 results preview –benefit from higher investment income, low nat
cats .............................................................................................................................31
Book value roll forward.............................................................................................32
Valuation table...........................................................................................................32
Swiss Re..................................................................................33
Zurich Financial Services ......................................................34
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................35