英文文献：Forecasting Causes of Death using Compositional Data Analysis: the Case of Cancer Deaths-使用成分数据分析预测死亡原因:癌症死亡案例
英文文献作者：S?ren Kj?rgaard,Yunus Emre Ergemen,Malene Kallestrup-Lamb,Jim Oeppen,Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen
英文文献摘要：
Cause-specific mortality forecasting is often based on predicting cause-specific death rates independently. Only a few methods have been suggested that incorporate dependence among causes. An attractive alternative is to model and forecast cause-specific death distributions, rather than mortality rates, as dependence among the causes can be incorporated directly. We follow this idea and propose two new models which extend the current research on mortality forecasting using death distributions. We find that adding age, time, and cause-specific weights and decomposing both joint and individual variation among different causes of death increased the forecast accuracy of cancer deaths using data for French and Dutch populations

特定原因死亡率预测通常基于独立预测特定原因死亡率。只有少数几种方法被建议在原因之间合并依赖。一个有吸引力的替代办法是建立模型和预测特定原因的死亡分布，而不是死亡率，因为可以直接纳入原因之间的依赖关系。我们遵循这一观点，提出了两个新的模型，扩展了目前使用死亡分布进行死亡率预测的研究。我们发现，增加年龄、时间和特定原因的权重，并分解不同死因之间的联合和个体变异，可以提高使用法国和荷兰人口数据预测癌症死亡的准确性