英文文献：World Soybean Demand: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections-世界大豆需求:弹性分析和长期预测
英文文献作者：Masuda, Tadayoshi,Goldsmith, Peter D.
英文文献摘要：
Soybeans are one of the most valuable crops in the world and are characterized by their multi-purpose uses: food, feed, fuel and other industrial usages such as paint, inks, and plastics. Out of 183.9 million tons of world supply/demand of soybeans in 2001-03 year, about 10% of them were directly consumed as food (5.9%) or feed (3.8%) but 84.2% of them were crushed into soyoil and soymeal. Soyoil is mainly processed to vegetable oil for human consumption and recently used as a biodiesel feedstock. Soymeal is used not only as feed for livestock (especially for pork and poultry due to its low fiber level) and aquaculture, but also as a good source of protein for the human diet in a variety of forms in different cultures. This paper analyzes the relationship of the demand for soybeans with economy at country and international levels. We use the county level domestic demand quantities with GDP data and apply an error correction mechanism (ECM) to estimate the long-term elasticities of demand for soybeans in the market/economy. Using the estimated long-term elasticities, the demands for soybeans are projected through 2030.

大豆是世界上最有价值的作物之一，其特点是多用途:食品、饲料、燃料和其他工业用途，如油漆、油墨和塑料。2001-03年世界大豆供给量为1.839亿吨，其中约10%直接作为食品(5.9%)或饲料(3.8%)消费，84.2%被碾碎成豆油和豆粕。豆油主要加工成供人类食用的植物油，最近被用作生物柴油的原料。豆粕不仅被用作牲畜(特别是低纤维水平的猪肉和家禽)和水产养殖的饲料，而且在不同的文化中作为各种形式的人类饮食蛋白的良好来源。本文从国家和国际两个层面分析了大豆需求与经济的关系。我们使用县级国内需求数量与GDP数据，并应用误差修正机制(ECM)来估计市场/经济中对大豆需求的长期弹性。利用估计的长期弹性，预计到2030年大豆的需求量。