宏观经济学与现实。计量经济学，48，1-48。Sims，C.A.，Stock，J.和Watson W.，M.1990。具有某些单位根的线性时间序列模型中的推理。《计量经济学》，58114-44。Tagkalakis A.，2008年。财政政策对经济衰退和扩张时期消费的影响。公共经济学杂志92（5-6）：1486-1508。瓦普尼克，V.，博泽，B.和盖恩，I.1992。一种优化边缘分类器的训练算法。第五届计算学习理论年度研讨会，匹兹堡，ACM，第144-152页。表5。

使用四个滞后系统2系统4系统6系统MLCoef对实际私人GNP的财政政策冲击。问题。科夫。问题。科夫。问题。科夫。问题。C0。（1）0.2650.003***0.0.0 0.0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0.0 0.0 0.0.0 0.0 0.0.0.9430.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0.0 0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0 0.0.0.0 0.0 0.0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0.0 0.0.0.0.0.0 0.0.0.0.0 0.0.0.0 0.0.0 0.0.0.0 0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0 0.0.0.0.0.14-0.0.140.0.0.0.1-0.0.0.0.14-0-0.0.0.0.14 0.14.14.14.14.1（1-0.1-0.20.075*0.0010.17d（TB3（-1））0.0010.4200.0020.077*0.0030.017**-0.0000.52d（TB3（-2）)0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.30.50.50.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0 0.0.0 0.0.0 0.1380.2320.20.20.2320.20.20.20.20.20.032 3 3 3 3 3 3 3**00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6950.0710.42d（mzm（-3））-0.0390.662-0.1990.074*-0.0930.286-0.1930.01**d（mzm（-4）)-0.0040.937-0.0070.917-0.0800.1640.0040.94SGP0。2960.2140.2750.2100.2370.095*-67.380.73SGP（-1）0.0150.9210.0770.6330.0520.709135.880.35SGP（-2）-0.1200.370-0.0440.761-0.1660.156-90.030.55SGP（-3）-0.2570.151-0.2130.199-0.1360.290475.360.01**SGP（-4）-0.1150.431-0.1730.262-0.1180.326-23N300。2730.1650.3100.075*0.4230.012**81.660.68SGN（-1）-0.1800.283-0.1310.419-0.1490.283100.560.48SGN（-2）-0.0520.690-0.0630.6060.0430.75448.030.77SGN（-3）-0.2040.184-0.1930.2040.040.0460.705-515.040.01**SGN（-4）0.1180.4250.1450.3340.2220.2162795（续表）。

财政政策；vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv001-5.660.87SRN（-1）-0.0300.710-0.0240.7380.0450.610-25.980.37SRN（-2）0.0170.7880.0580.3090.1120.0705.840.88SRN（-3）0.0490.4640.0640.3150.0700.214104.030.00***SRN（-4）0.0200.7210.0200.724-0.0150.72318.340.55系统2系统6系统MLF测试SSGP=SGN0。9510.9230.4780.652SRP=SRN0。5780.5300.118SGP=SRN0。5900.7010.8400.005***SGN=SRP0。2930.2270.038**joint SGP=00.6860.8430.6380.632 joint SGN=00.8960.8070.094*0.855 joint SRP=00.3760.5850.031**0.507 joint SRN=00.5740.6560.9680.289∑SGP=∑SGN0。8410.7990.1790.441∑SRP=∑SRN0。3480.4950.1610.000***∑SGP=∑SRN0。6280.7680.6760.509∑SGN=∑SRP0。7480.5610.4370.975注：*、**和***分别表示在0.10、0.05和0.01水平上拒绝零假设