gssdzc 发表于 2007-8-24 21:24 
可以考虑用VAR模型,建立VAR后,可以之间点开误差修正选择
gssdzc 前辈你好!
我建立了VAR之后用johansen检验了y与x之间存在协整关系,之后是直接做VEC吗?VEC的结果如下:
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C(1) -0.285902 0.131236 -2.178524 0.0447
C(2) 0.244851 0.274857 0.890832 0.3862
C(3) 0.448313 0.281669 1.591632 0.131
C(4) -0.082687 0.079791 -1.036297 0.3155
C(5) 0.157916 0.08061 1.959019 0.0678
C(6) 0.01409 0.012108 1.163658 0.2616
C(7) -0.751919 0.330017 -2.278422 0.0368
C(8) 1.863259 0.691177 2.695776 0.0159
C(9) -2.461284 0.708306 -3.474888 0.0031
C(10) 0.581659 0.20065 2.898881 0.0105
C(11) 0.083517 0.202707 0.412007 0.6858
C(12) -0.044959 0.030449 -1.476542 0.1592
Determinant residual covariance 2.79E-06
Equation: D(GDPAH) = C(1)*( GDPAH(-1) + 0.655270578645*UNAH(-1) +
0.0197185347187 ) + C(2)*D(GDPAH(-1)) + C(3)*D(GDPAH(-2)) + C(4)
*D(UNAH(-1)) + C(5)*D(UNAH(-2)) + C(6)
Observations: 14
R-squared 0.759825 Mean dependent var -0.007331
Adjusted R-squared 0.609716 S.D. dependent var 0.060866
S.E. of regression 0.038025 Sum squared resid 0.011567
Durbin-Watson stat 3.084247
这样怎么看这个协整方式是不是有效的呀?