The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2014
Jean Tirole
"for his analysis of market power and regulation"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2013
Eugene F. Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert J. Shiller
"for their empirical analysis of asset prices"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2012
Alvin E. Roth and Lloyd S. Shapley
"for the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2011
Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims
"for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2010
Peter A. Diamond, Dale T. Mortensen and Christopher A. Pissarides
"for their analysis of markets with search frictions"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2009
Elinor Ostrom
"for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons"

Oliver E. Williamson
"for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2008
Paul Krugman
"for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2007
Leonid Hurwicz, Eric S. Maskin and Roger B. Myerson
"for having laid the foundations of mechanism design theory"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2006
Edmund S. Phelps
"for his analysis of intertemporal tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2005
Robert J. Aumann and Thomas C. Schelling
"for having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2004
Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott
"for their contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the time consistency of economic policy and the driving forces behind business cycles"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2003
Robert F. Engle III
"for methods of analyzing economic time series with time-varying volatility (ARCH)"

Clive W.J. Granger
"for methods of analyzing economic time series with common trends (cointegration)"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2002
Daniel Kahneman
"for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty"

Vernon L. Smith
"for having established laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis, especially in the study of alternative market mechanisms"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2001
George A. Akerlof, A. Michael Spence and Joseph E. Stiglitz
"for their analyses of markets with asymmetric information"

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2000
James J. Heckman
"for his development of theory and methods for analyzing selective samples"

第一百四十六条 有下列情形之一的，不得担任公司的董事、监事、高级管理人员：

1、无民事行为能力或者限制民事行为能力;

2、因贪污、贿赂、侵占财产、挪用财产或者破坏社会主义市场经济秩序，被判处刑罚，执行期满未逾五年，或者因犯罪被剥夺政治权利，执行期满未逾五年;

3、担任破产清算的公司、企业的董事或者厂长、经理，对该公司、企业的破产负有个人责任的，自该公司、企业破产清算完结之日起未逾三年;

4、担任因违法被吊销营业执照、责令关闭的公司、企业的法定代表人，并负有个人责任的，自该公司、企业被吊销营业执照之日起未逾三年;

5、个人所负数额较大的债务到期未清偿。

(1)医师多点执业

根据卫生部《关于医师多点执业有关问题的通知》(卫医政发〔2009〕86号)规定，医师原则上应当在同一省、自治区、直辖市内执业，地点不超过3个。

(2)医师外出会诊

原卫生部于2005年4月30日下发《医师外出会诊管理暂行规定》(中华人民共和国卫生部令第42号)规定，医师经所在医疗机构批准，为其他医疗机构特定的患者开展执业范围内的诊疗活动。

邀请会诊的医疗机构(以下称邀请医疗机构)拟邀请其他医疗机构(以下称会诊医疗机构)的医师会诊，需向会诊医疗机构发出书面会诊邀请函。内容应当包括拟会诊患者病历摘要、拟邀请医师或者邀请医师的专业及技术职务任职资格、会诊的目的、理由、时间和费用等情况，并加盖邀请医疗机构公章。用电话或者电子邮件等方式提出会诊邀请的，应当及时补办书面手续。

根据原卫生部于2005年4月30日下发的《医师外出会诊管理暂行规定》(中华人民共和国卫生部令第42号)规定，1、医师经所在医疗机构批准，为其他医疗机构特定的患者开展执业范围内的诊疗活动。医师未经所在医疗机构批准，不得擅自外出会诊。2、邀请医疗机构支付会诊费用应当统一支付给会诊医疗机构，不得支付给会诊医师本人。会诊医疗机构由于会诊产生的收入，应纳入单位财务部门统一核算。3、会诊医疗机构应当按照有关规定给付会诊医师合理报酬。医师在外出会诊时不得违反规定接受邀请医疗机构报酬，不得收受或者索要患者及其家属的钱物，不得牟取其他不正当利益。

二、尝试的解决方案：多点执业+会诊+独立经营资质

在主体医院旁边新设立一家医疗机构，一般是二级医院，作为医生第二职业单位。医生集团和投资者参股这家新的医疗机构，出诊也以这家机构的名义进行。避免被认作科室承包。采用类似律师行业的有限合伙制，对加盟医生进行激励。

•
We provide a framework for participatory research processes to overcome the increasing science–policy gap.
•
This framework allows establishing an effective science–policy interface despite high complexity and contested values.
•
We also provide a monitoring and evaluation approach that accompanies this framework.
•
We provide selected results from implementing the ChaRL framework in the Mekong region.

The aging of the Chinese population and the cost of health care

It is projected that by 2050 China could have a staggering 115 million elderly citizens over 80 years old. Serious planning is needed to cope with this demand. This is the direct and inevitable result of the one-child policy that came into effect in 1979, as an independent policy to the Comprehensive Economic Reform; but the complementary nature is unmistakable.

In accordance with the objective of this special issue of the Social Science Journal, the modest objective of this paper presents a brief history of the health care reform which really only began in 2002. We borrow from a major pilot study (the CHARLS data set) to provide quantitative measures of the cost of medical insurance. CHARLS samples two provinces, the inland poorer Gangsu and the coastal prosperous Zhejiang. The premium was 13 and 27 Yuan for the rural populations Gansu and Zhejiang. For the urban population, the premium was 289 versus 337 for men versus women in urban Gansu. But for the urban areas of Zhejiang, the pattern is radically different; 324.3 Yuan for women and a much higher 608 Yuan for men.

Urban residents have always enjoyed better health care. With the support of the central government, 90% of rural population now received some form of basic health coverage. The issue is the reimbursement rate. For outpatient care, the reimbursement rates max out at under 40% and 32% for the urban and rural patients, respectively. This is certainly not enough to cover catastrophic illness, and that is why many Chinese feel they are just one major illness away from utter poverty. Outpatient care is even worse. The reimbursement rates average around only 10%. As Chinese statistics on full medical cost (especially for the elderly) is lacking, we utilize statistics from Taiwan and try to estimate the health care cost of the aging population.

We discuss potential issues observed in the Taiwan experience, and proposed an incentive scheme, Self-Motivated Health Maintenance (SMHM), to deal with moral hazards and to reduce the overall health care cost. We believe the SMHM is a win–win–win solution. China has the possibility of building this into their health insurance.

► Due to the one-child policy, China is facing severe aging trends with a projected 115 million population of 80+ years old by 2050. ► Health care reform has made significant strides since 2002, but is more aimed at acute disease rather than chronic illness with plagues the elderly. ► Tying several sources together, we project what the health care cost for the elderly would be and show a tremendous economic burden. ► To control cost and reduce the moral hazard issue, a “Self-interest Motivated Health Maintenance” strategy is proposed.

The economic success of the post-reform China is a modern phenomenon. The rate of growth and the length it has sustained such growth are all unprecedented, making it the envy of the world, both for developing and developed nations. The current global economic crisis did have a negative effect on China as it is heavily dependent on external demand (Bao, Bodvarsson, Hou, & Zhao, 2009, Hou, 2009), but China still will have a growth rate nearing 9.1%.1 However, behind this success there exist numerous pressing issues that await proper attention.

Adaptive Designs for Sequential Treatment Allocation

The rest of the paper is organized as followed. In Section 1, we will paint a grim picture regarding China's ticking time bomb in terms of aging. This will be followed by the discussion of China's health care reform. We will focus on the coverage, but mainly focus on the inadequacies (especially towards the elderly) of the recent reforms, which has brought basic health care to a majority of Chinese in the last decade. In Section 3, we will try to pull together several sources of data to produce some rough computation on the health care cost for the elderly, especially for the very elderly group of 80+. This is followed by a somewhat radical proposal of what we term Self-interest Motivated Health Maintenance (SMHM) scheme to curb the moral hazard issue that universally plagues all health care systems. A short summary will conclude the study.

威武威武~~~

The aging population distribution of China has its roots in the one-child policy which was introduced in 1979.2 Though it was initiated about the same time as when China embarked on its historical Comprehensive Economic Reform, this one-child policy was not a direct part of the reform itself. However, the motivation was still grounded in economics: to maintain a steady labor force while reducing unemployment caused by labor surplus, and to reduce the demand for natural resources to sustain economic growth (Tain, 1983). The policy is controversial both within and outside China because of the manner in which the policy has been implemented, and because of concerns about negative socio-economic consequences. These include forced abortions, and more troubling the reputed female infanticide. Despite these, the one-child policy still enjoys strong support within China.3

Indeed, the official position of the Chinese government is that the one-child policy is a great success in supporting the current economic growth. In addition, the reduction in fertility rate has eased the social burden that is usually associated with overpopulation. What is interesting is the government could have perhaps partially achieved this fertility reduction without the harsh enforcements that has drawn wide criticism. As Schultz and Zeng (1988) found, with the implementation of the contract responsibility system (1979), farmers were able to have more children as they were no longer dependent on the food rationing, but quickly (late 1980s) economic costs and other incentives were already reducing the number of children farmers wanted.

Numerous criticisms against the one-child policy are fairly well known and do not warrant coverage here. From a demographic point of view, two points are of special interest, one is the gender balance issue, and the other is the inevitable accelerated population aging. The latter is our focus, but a brief discussion of the former is perhaps informative. The ratio of male–female at birth is 103:100 upwards to 107:100 among industrialized nations. China exhibited 108:100 in 1981, but quickly worsened as a direct result of the one-child policy. Currently, the gender ratio at birth stands as 119:100,4 which has a host of social instability issues that can be implicated (Hesketh & Xing, 2008). This is the combined result of the one-child policy and the traditional practice of favoring sons as they carry the family name and are expected to take care of their parents. As a side-note, this is fairly common in Asia, for example, Taiwan has a gender ratio at birth of 110:100 (and 108:100 for South Korea).

Now let us turn to the real issue at hand. China's population dependency ratio has fallen to 36.9% in 2009 and has been below 40% since 2005.5 For China, the children dependency ratio (0–14 Population/15–64 Population) is 25.7% currently, and the elderly dependency ratio is 11.2%. In contrast, for the recognized aging Japanese economy, the dependency ratio is 54.1%, with children and elderly dependency ratios at 20.4% and 33.7% (based on WHO statistics), respectively. China, however, will be worse. In fact, as far as the dependency ratio is concerned, China is at the “as good as it gets” stage.

As can be seen from Table 1, China's dependency ratio will start to rise. The children dependency ratio is relatively stable. It is the elderly dependency ratio that will be the root cause. The elderly dependency ratio is projected to rise from the current 11% to 38% by the year 2050. Based on the 2000 Census, China's 60+ population accounts for 10.5%, and is projected to rise to 19.5% in 2025 and 29.9% by 2050. In absolute numbers, this implies an elderly (60+) population will rapidly increase from 129 million in 2000–394 million by 2050; a threefold increase in half a century.

The above are projections based on the 2000 census and a lot has happened since.6 The Chinese government is in the process of discontinuing the one-child policy, but how effective this will be is still uncertain. Technically, less than 40% of the families are affected by the one-child policy, and the one-child policy has a “binding effect” on even less (under 20%).7 Furthermore, casual survey of the young people shows that many do not want more than one child, some even plan to have no children. Even in the best circumstances, the abandonment of the one-child policy will increase the number of young population with no effect of the working age group for over a decade. This will further worsen the dependency ratio as the children dependency ratio will rise. Even when the new added children enter the labor force in the late 2020s, the absolute number of the elderly remains unaffected.

As can be seen from Table 1, China's dependency ratio will start to rise. The children dependency ratio is relatively stable. It is the elderly dependency ratio that will be the root cause. The elderly dependency ratio is projected to rise from the current 11% to 38% by the year 2050. Based on the 2000 Census, China's 60+ population accounts for 10.5%, and is projected to rise to 19.5% in 2025 and 29.9% by 2050. In absolute numbers, this implies an elderly (60+) population will rapidly increase from 129 million in 2000–394 million by 2050; a threefold increase in half a century.

The above are projections based on the 2000 census and a lot has happened since.6 The Chinese government is in the process of discontinuing the one-child policy, but how effective this will be is still uncertain. Technically, less than 40% of the families are affected by the one-child policy, and the one-child policy has a “binding effect” on even less (under 20%).7 Furthermore, casual survey of the young people shows that many do not want more than one child, some even plan to have no children. Even in the best circumstances, the abandonment of the one-child policy will increase the number of young population with no effect of the working age group for over a decade. This will further worsen the dependency ratio as the children dependency ratio will rise. Even when the new added children enter the labor force in the late 2020s, the absolute number of the elderly remains unaffected.

China embarked on its historical Comprehensive Economic Reform

this one-child policy was not a direct part of the reform itself.

However, the motivation was still grounded in economics: to maintain a steady labor force while reducing unemployment caused by labor surplus, and to reduce the demand for natural resources to sustain economic growth (Tain, 1983)

The policy is controversial both within and outside China because of the manner in which the policy has been implemented, and because of concerns about negative socio-economic consequences.

These include forced abortions, and more troubling the reputed female infanticide. Despite these, the one-child policy still enjoys strong support within China.3

Aging is one of the major risk factors for vascular diseases.

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