Regional outlook: the pendulum effect     Date: 3. Feb

■ We expect 2009 to bring continued volatility for insurers as markets move like a pendulum between deflation fears and reflation optimism.

■ Against a backdrop of falling interest rates and heightened deflation concerns, we believe P&C insurers are more attractive in 1H09 give their superior balance sheet flexibility and upside risk to operating earnings. Looking beyond 1H09, life insurers will look increasingly attractive as evidence emerges of easing economic contraction risks and a firm bottom in interest rates and equity market cycles.

■ Our top picks in early 2009: In the P&C sector, we like PICC, LIG Insurance and Insurance Australia Group. In the life insurance sector, we are generally more cautious although we prefer China to Taiwan given China’s superior capital strength, cleaner balance sheets and proportionately lower legacy book risks. Within China, we prefer Ping An to China Life given Ping An’s cheaper valuation and stronger premium growth outlook.

Research Analysts

Christopher Esson

852 2101 6088

chris.esson@credit-suisse.com

Seok Yun, CFA, CA

822 3707 3730

seok.yun@credit-suisse.com

Sherry Lin

852 2101 7609

sherry.lin@credit-suisse.com

Arjan van Veen

612 8205 4537

arjan.vanveen@credit-suisse.com

Chung Hsu, CFA

8862 2715 6362

chung.hsu@credit-suisse.com

Frances Feng

852 2101 6693

frances.feng@credit-suisse.com

Jihyun Cho

822 3707 3765

jihyun.cho@credit-suisse.com

Julie Yu

8862 2715 6363

julie.yu@credit-suisse.com

Jumana Nahhas

612 8205 4106

jumana.nahhas@credit-suisse.com

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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-2-4 10:43:18编辑过]