【出版时间及名称】：2010-2-25
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：64
【目录或简介】： Lower prices unleash volume
■ Raising smartphone estimates. We materially raise our smartphone
estimates for 2010/2011 by 9%/10% to 230mn/293mn units (robust growth
of 35%/27% yoy). In particular, we see a clear move from chipset vendors,
carriers and handset OEMs to move this segment toward the $100-$250
range in terms of factory ASP. In turn, we believe this will help in halving the
TCO of a smartphone to $270 by 2015. Based on our proprietary
affordability model, we believe that the addressable market for smartphones
is 1.8bn long term, meaning that penetration is currently only 17%. As this
rises to over 60% by 2015, we believe the smartphone segment will triple to
546mn units. We acknowledge that this shift down market will result in
double digit pricing pressure, and vendors without a compelling software or
services platform long term will face risk of hardware commoditisation.
■ Credit Suisse scorecard to determine winners and losers in an
increasingly competitive market. To evaluate the key players in what we
believe will be an increasingly competitive market segment, we continue to
rely upon our scorecard based on seven factors (software, services, product,
brand, distribution, IPR and chipset efficiency) which we think are needed for
smartphone success. We conclude that secular share gainers will be Apple,
RIM, and possibly Motorola. Despite the shift to lower price points suiting
Nokia’s core strengths, we believe that the company’s current 40%/28%
volume/value share in smartphones is unsustainable given slow progress
with Symbian and significant Android-inspired competition heading its way.
We believe players such as HTC, Samsung, Palm and LG could struggle to
gain share due to less focused software strategies and/or weak distribution.
■ Reiterate Outperform on RIM and Motorola, Neutral on Qualcomm and
Palm, and Underperform on Nokia. For RIM (CS focus list), we raise our
EPS to $5.45/$6.00 for FY11/FY12 and retain our Outperform rating, as we
believe global smartphone share is sustainable at ~21% and that the
company is yet to benefit from an enterprise recovery. For Motorola, we
retain our SOTP-based target price of $10 based on our view that the
Devices segment will be profitable in late 2010 mainly driven by smartphone
traction (we estimate 14mn/20mn smartphones in 2010/2011). For
Qualcomm, given competitive pressures in the chipset business that could
prove to be long-lived, we lower our below consensus EPS further to
$2.17/$2.30 for FY10/FY11 and our target price drops to $40 (from $45). For
Palm, we maintain our Neutral rating and target price of $10 (1.0x EV/Sales)
as uncertainty on sell-through and ramping opex drives limited visibility on
long-term earnings power. Lastly, for Nokia we raise our EPS estimates
slightly to