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2009-01-23

Gold Price Forecast Revision
and Equities Impact
SECTOR REVIEW
Credit crisis delays perfect storm
The following is excerpted from comment titled ‘Gold Supply and Demand
Update and Price Forecast’, by Dr. David Davis, Credit Suisse Standard
Securities, dated January 16, 2009.

Event - credit crisis: Stock markets and commodity prices began to react to
the unfolding effects of the ever deepening and widening global financial
crises around mid July 2008. Almost all commodity prices, including the oil
price, tumbled by around 60% as the financial markets reacted to the
paradigm shift of a projected sharp downturn in global growth. The gold
price has not been immune to the global financial crises; however, relative
to almost all other commodities it has been an outperformer. Economists
have indicated that a sharp downturn in global GDP will result from the credit
crises which will, in turn, result in a downturn in demand for commodities,
goods and services.

View The key question arising from the fall out resulting from the credit crisis
is: to what extent will it affect the fundamental gold supply and demand
dynamics and thus the gold price? We believe that the fall out from the
credit crisis will be most strongly felt on the demand side of the
equation. A slowdown in global growth will likely affect fabrication demand,
specifically gold jewellery, electronics and other industrial components.
We estimate the downturn in fabrication demand could be between 240
tonnes and 360 tonnes in 2009. We do not believe the demand for ETFs or
coin fabrication will be adversely affected as evidenced by recent trends and
their safe haven status. We do not believe that the supply side of the
equation, that is mine and central bank supply, will materially differ from our
previous supply forecasts, which argued that they are in decline.
Our calculations now indicate a neutral supply and demand equation for
2009 compared to our previous calculation of a supply deficit of 315 tonnes
for the year. Under these circumstances, we believe the upward pressure on
the gold price associated with a large supply deficit is now likely to be eased.
We have therefore revised our gold price forecast down to reflect our
projected downturn in demand in 2009: Our gold price forecast for 2009
has changed to US$900 from our previous forecast of US$980/oz. (Note
the gold price averaged US$872/ounce in 2008). We maintain our longstanding
view that the supply and demand fundamentals remain intact for a
long-term upswing in the gold price.

Metal Price Revisions
For further details regarding our gold price revision please refer to Gold Supply and
Demand Update and Price Forecast, by Dr. David Davis, Credit Suisse Standard
Securities, dated January 16, 2009 (we have included the note in its entirely at the end of
this comment). For further details regarding our base metal price revisions please refer to
Copper, Down But Not Out, by Paul McTaggart, dated January 15, 2009.
CS Canada Target Price and Estimate Revisions
We are using the official commodity price forecasts for our financial forecasts, i.e. EPS
and CFPS.
We are now using 2009 pricing for target price and rating valuation
We generate our targets in a different manner, however. First, we have derived and have
been cross checking our target P/NAV multiples by comparing the NAV generated by using
daily metal prices in 2009 and beyond in our models with the daily share prices of the stock.
We find this spot pricing method better reflects the way the gold equities have been trading
over the past several months than a static price forecast curve as it incorporates daily metal
price fluctuations into our analysis. Secondly, we apply these target multiples to a NAV
generated by using our 2009 price forecasts in our models, in 2009 and beyond. These are
the NAVs we believe can be attained within a 12-month horizon.

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2009-1-23 14:29:00
好贵啊……
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2009-6-24 14:02:01
跟黄金一样贵啊!!!
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2009-6-26 18:16:25
你是不是穷疯了
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