文献1：Long-term forecasting with innovation diffusion models: The impact of replacement purchases http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/113338016/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0（已解决）

文献2：Forecasting the market diffusion of disruptive and discontinuous innovation http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freeabs_all.jsp?arnumber=1176865

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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-3-14 23:40:58编辑过]