Biosimilars a ‘must understand’ theme: these are generic versions of
biological drugs. From almost zero currently, we estimate that they can be a
US$10 bn market in the US and EU by 2015, or one-fourth of the then
market for conventional generics. Their impact on profits for specific
companies can be significantly higher due to low competition and better
margins. We believe biosimilars can thus be a game changer for the industry
– a tidal wave that can potentially change the pecking order in generics.
Once we have regulatory clarity in the US, which we expect by late this year,
we expect pipelines will start getting valued, notwithstanding the risks
involved.
■ Competitive and regulatory framework clearer: Undoubtedly there are
risks involved: high investment, six to eight years long lead-time, regulatory
uncertainty, and uncertainty in acceptance by doctors. But several of these
hurdles have already been crossed. Aspirants of every stripe have a hat in
the ring (current generics, custom manufacturers, big pharma), focusing on
their strengths. Further, the long lead-time means new entrants may only
target patent expiries after 2015: this simplifies analysis for now.
■ Indian firms well placed on costs: Indian companies have low capex and
development costs, and make strategic use of the Indian market. This
improves payback and mitigates risks: we believe project IRR’s can be
25%-plus even on conservative estimates. Globally, among generic
companies we believe Teva, Sandoz and Dr. Reddy’s are the best
positioned. Dr. Reddy’s current pipeline with very conservative estimates
yields a value of US$300 mn (11% of current market cap).