【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本制药行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：93
        【目录或简介】：

Preview of FY3/10 earnings announcements
FY3/10 earnings announcements from Japanese drug companies begin at the end
of the Golden Week holidays. We believe it is important to review basic
information, including FY3/10 results, FY3/11 company guidance, NHI drug price
revisions in April 2010, exchange rate trends, and IMS data. Trends at relevant US
and European drug companies, and the sales of competing drugs, are also
important. We hope this report helps investors obtain a better grasp of these
trends.
Deutsche Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Results
Top picks
Shionogi (4507.T),¥1,819 Buy
Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508.T),¥1,363 Buy
Taisho Pharmaceutical (4535.T),¥1,729 Buy
Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547.T),¥2,069 Buy
Companies featured
Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502.T),¥4,180 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 297 366 306
P/E (x) 16.8 11.4 13.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 4.5 4.5
Astellas Pharma (4503.T),¥3,455 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 339 268 227
P/E (x) 11.9 12.9 15.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 4.0 4.5
Shionogi (4507.T),¥1,819 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 45 110 132
P/E (x) 44.8 16.6 13.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.7 8.5 6.7
Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508.T),¥1,363 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 47 62 78
P/E (x) 27.0 22.1 17.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 6.8 5.8
Eisai (4523.T),¥3,390 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 161 138 210
P/E (x) 22.2 24.5 16.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.4 9.0 7.6
Ono Pharmaceutical (4528.OS),¥4,060 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 197 249 258
P/E (x) 25.8 16.3 15.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.7 8.1 7.4
Taisho Pharmaceutical (4535.T),¥1,729 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 28 67 85
P/E (x) 70.8 25.9 20.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 8.8 7.8
Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547.T),¥2,069 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 36 72 108
P/E (x) 63.1 28.6 19.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 7.8 6.0
Daiichi Sankyo (4568.T),¥1,759 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) -304 65 64
P/E (x) – 27.0 27.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.5 8.0 7.9
Global Markets Research Company
A FY3/10 forecast workbook
This report takes the form of a workbook. We leave FY3/11 company guidance,
exchange rate assumptions, R&D expenses, forecast dividends, and other basic
figures blank for investors to fill in when they become known. We do the same for
development pipelines and trends, which are important in analyzing drugmakers.
FY3/10 earnings: few surprises
We expect few surprises in FY3/10 earnings given pro-active disclosure by
drugmakes and the adjustments they made to individual product sales forecasts and
exchange rate assumptions when they announced 2Q and 3Q results. However, for
domestic sales, we think the impact of a hesitation to make purchases ahead of
drug price revisions requires close scrutiny.
FY3/11 company guidance
Since results are released after drug price revisions in April 2010, we anticipate
conservative company guidance. We will closely watch whether companies include
in their guidance projected sales from new drug candidates scheduled for launch in
FY3/10. Additionally, for major companies, we think the extent to which patent
expiry may hurt sales has been included in guidance requires verification.
One-off factors
We will look for the booking of in-process R&D (IPR&D) expenses and one-off
goodwill amortization as an extraordinary loss due to M&A activity. Eisai made such
bookings in FY3/10, and Takeda Pharmaceutical, Shionogi, Taisho Pharmaceutical,
and Daiichi Sankyo in FY3/09.
Focus on development progress
We expect few surprises in the earnings announcements for drug companies. While
a careful analysis of results is important, we believe it is equally if not more
important to confirm the progress of development pipelines due to the potential
impact on future growth.
Our sector stance is Marketweight.
We expect a high probability of sector rotation for investment funds in the current
unstable stock market. Our sector stance is Marketweight as we see a balance of
negative factors (US healthcare system reform, the US patent expiration issue, and
yen appreciation) and positive factors (new drugs, pro-active shareholder policies,
and industry consolidation). We set target prices by applying the P/E average of drug
companies under our coverage of 14x (based on projected FY3/14 EPS) to our
individual EPS forecasts for each company. Upside risks include diminished
concerns over healthcare system reform, a preference for defensive stocks in the
market, expansion of M&A premiums on expectations of industry realignment, and
sharp yen depreciation. Downside risks include early and drastic healthcare system
reforms and a shift in focus to non-defensive sectors as investors turn bullish on the
stock market. For individual companies, such risks include changes in the new drug
development pipeline (rapid progress, delays, failures) and a decline in sales caused
by the discovery of side effects produced by existing drugs.
Contents
Sector rating ...................................................................................... 4
Marketweight reflects mixture of positives and negatives ....................................................... 4
Approximate market caps for the four major drug companies and second-tier firms ............... 4
Big picture ................................................................................................................................ 5
Our ratings ............................................................................................................................... 6
Valuation and risk ...................................................................................................................... 7
Drug price revisions in FY3/11 ......................................................... 8
Average 6.5% reduction ........................................................................................................... 8
US patent exposure ......................................................................... 12
Drug firms cannot escape patent expiration ........................................................................... 12
Impact of patent expiration of rival products of other firms .................................................... 13
Other basic items............................................................................. 16
Exchange rates ........................................................................................................................ 16
Industry realignment ............................................................................................................... 18
Shareholder returns ................................................................................................................. 20
Price Performance .................................................................................................................. 21
Results schedule and key points .................................................... 22