Table of Contents
Top picks, macro data, consensus data sheet ..........................................................................3
Cyclical recovery taking shape......................................................... 5
Cyclical upturn accelerating; sharpest rebound in Asia .............................................................5
Valuation expansion on sharpest GDP rebound since 1998......................................................6
Earnings momentum remains positive .....................................................................................8
Singapore market target and DB 10 portfolio..........................................................................10
Risks ......................................................................................................................................13
Charting a recovery ......................................................................... 14
Sector views .................................................................................... 17
Banks: Overweight..................................................................................................................17
Property developers: Neutral ..................................................................................................19
Real Estate Investment Trusts: Overweight............................................................................20
Conglomerates/Offshore and Marine: Neutral ........................................................................21
Telecommunications Underweight .........................................................................................22
Container shipping: Neutral.....................................................................................................23
Airlines sector: Neutral............................................................................................................24
Land Transport: Neutral ..........................................................................................................25
Healthcare: Underweight ........................................................................................................25
DB 10 Singapore Portfolio .............................................................. 26
Sector rotation................................................................................. 27
1. Performance – Food, Beverage & Tobacco ........................................................................27
2. Growth and value................................................................................................................27
3. Momentum and marginal change .......................................................................................28
4. Sentiment, flows and liquidity.............................................................................................28
5. Volatility and risk .................................................................................................................29
Asset allocation ............................................................................... 30
DB macroeconomic view ................................................................ 31
Macro view .............................................................................................................................31
Appendix A – Growth...................................................................... 32
Appendix B – Value ......................................................................... 33
Appendix C – Risks .......................................................................... 34
Appendix D – MSCI Singapore ....................................................... 35