Table of Contents
Equity outlook: breaking with the seasonal trend?........................ 3
Assessing Russia’s performance so far ....................................................................................3
Seasonality: a weak September ahead? ...................................................................................8
What is driving Russian equities? .............................................................................................9
Valuation: Russia remains cheap vs. EM.................................................................................12
RTS Index end-2009 target: remains unchanged at 1,250 ......................................................13
Global outlook: Partly cloudy, occasional sunshine..................... 16
Politics: Risks of interventionism subside..................................... 19
Russia’s macroeconomy: ‘Second wave’ theory less prevalent.. 22
Rouble less sensitive to swings in oil prices...........................................................................22
Growth performance set to improve in the fall period............................................................24
Inflation outlook: further declines in the pipeline ....................................................................26
Budget: spending to peak in December .................................................................................26
Capital flows: FDI sharply down, portfolio flows on the rise...................................................27
Assessing economic performance, drivers and risks..............................................................28
Equity Model Portfolio .................................................................... 30
Past performance: outperforming the market by 13.2% YTD*...............................................30
Refining the model portfolio ...................................................................................................31
Oil & gas sector: no changes..................................................................................................31
Metals & Mining sector: exclude Polyus Gold, from a 2% weight .........................................32
Electric utilities: exclude RusHydro, increase Mosenergo ......................................................33
Telecoms: no changes............................................................................................................34
Retail & Consumer Goods: moderate reduction in the presence of the sector ......................34
Banks: increase presence of Sberbank ...................................................................................35
Real Estate: introduce PIK with a 3% weight..........................................................................36
Bringing it all together: the new composition of the Model Portfolio .....................................37