Diesel consumption growth rate turns positive y-y in Sep for first time in four months
In September, Chinese diesel nominal consumption rose 1.4% m-m, backed by growing
production (up 0.9% m-m) and falling exports (down 25.7% m-m). Meanwhile,
consumption growth rate turned positive (up 7.8%) y-y for the first time in four months,
thanks to the recovery of the manufacturing and agricultural industries. In October, we
expect diesel consumption to decrease m-m due to national holidays, but grow y-y.
Flagship synthetic resin imports remain flat m-m, while imports of synthetic rubber
and raw materials for synthetic fibers rise
September flagship synthetic resins imports decreased only 0.1% m-m to 1.47mn tons
(PE, PS up, PVC, ABS, PP down). However, despite an increase in raw materials costs
on rising crude price and special tariffs on Chinese tire imports in the US, synthetic
rubber imports surged 15.7% m-m to 240,000 tons backed by solid domestic demand.
Meanwhile, raw materials imports for synthetic fibers rallied 18.9% m-m to 1.38mn tons
thanks to the recovery of the textile manufacturing industry.
China fertilizer exports rise on low export tariff rate during off-season and reinforced
price competitiveness
In September, China urea fertilizer exports surged 120.5% m-m to 800,000 tons.
Meanwhile, phosphorous acid fertilizer exports climbed 9.4% m-m to 170,000 tons
thanks to: 1) low export tariff rates during the off-season; 2) reinforced export
competitiveness; and 3) rising global fertilizer prices.
Chinese domestic chemical prices to remain strong in Oct, but weaken in Nov
Of the 39 Chinese chemical product prices we cover, 21 strengthened over the last
month, while 6 remained flat and 12 decreased slightly. However, we believe overall
China chemicals prices should weaken from mid-November due to increased supply and
weak demand due to low seasonality.