【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月俄罗斯石化行业研究报告
        【作者】：VTB capital
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：62
        【目录或简介】：
Initiating coverage of Tatneft and Alliance Oil Company. We are
initiating coverage of Tatneft with a Buy rating: our 12-month TP of
USD 7.8 implies 60% upside potential. We expect Phase-I of TANECO
refinery to add 13% to EBITDA in 2011-18, and see a cash flow benefit
of USD 4bn from tax savings at the Romashkinskoye field in 2009-18.
Production capacity could rise 14% due to bitumen projects,
potentially adding 8% to our DCF valuation. Tatneft trades at 2010F
P/E of 4.5x and EV/EBITDA of 4.0x, discounts of 66% and 42% to the
average 2010F P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples for EMEA integrated oils.
We are initiating coverage of AOC with a Buy rating: our 12-month TP
of USD 19.8 implies 25% upside potential. AOC’s ambition to double
output by 2012 looks well substantiated. Upgrading Khabarovsk
Refinery would add 21% to the company’s EBITDA post-2012, while
cost savings from transporting oil through ESPO could potentially add
another 10-15%. Alliance Oil Company trades at 2010F P.E of 10.0x
and EV/EBITDA of 5.9x, discounts of 25% and 14% to the average
2010E P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples for EMEA integrated oils.
Upstream in tears. Playing on the pure upstream in Russia implies
major risks, in our view. We estimate that 11% of existing production
capacity is value destructive, in DCF terms. Roughly 40% of capacity is
producing at well yields of 5-10 tonnes per day, implying more shutdown
candidates should macro conditions worsen. With oil at
USD 80/bbl, new projects must have initial well flows of 25 tonnes per
day to be NPV positive (in 2009, some 20% of new capacity did not).
Vertical integration is the major value catalyst. Integrated business
remains Russian oil companies’ preferred operating model, with
downstream expansion being the major source of EPS growth. We
expect refining’s contribution to the EBITDA of the Russian integrated
oil business to go up from 10% in 2009 to 37% in 2011. We view
integration stories such as Tatneft and AOC as the key value-accretive
business strategies in the current environment.
The main downside risks for both companies stem from adverse
macroeconomic changes, oil price dynamics and taxation regime.