【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国石化行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
Executive Summary........................................................................... 3
The dollar and oil prices ............................................................................................................3
Physical and financial flows.............................................................. 5
Oil movements and petrodollar flows.......................................................................................5
Major dollar flows as a function of oil trade..............................................................................8
The net effective import bill ....................................................................................................10
US$ vs oil – indirect drivers............................................................ 17
The fact that 90%+ of oil continues to be traded in US$ is vital .............................................17
Up-shift in role of dollar, declining share of US in world activity .............................................18
Summary: Impact of the continued pricing of global oil in US$ ..............................................20
The US$ oil invoice currency effect – higher non-US oil demand............................................21
The US$ oil invoice currency effect – higher Non-US costs....................................................23
The US$ oil purchasing power effect – higher target price.....................................................25
The petrodollar recycling effect ..............................................................................................26
US$ vs oil – direct drivers ............................................................... 28
Global economic growth / the output gap is the biggest driver ..............................................28
Outlook for the short term drivers................................................. 31
Output gap to narrow = bullish oil; but not to $100/bbl+........................................................31
Dollar to strengthen in 2010 = bearish oil ...............................................................................33
Short term modeling of the price of oil ...................................................................................37
Outlook: long term drivers ............................................................. 39
Keep an eye on that US oil industry ........................................................................................39
Valuation and Risks......................................................................... 41
Valuation and Risks: Integrated Oils........................................................................................41
Valuation and Risks: Refiners..................................................................................................42