【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国石化行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：60
        【目录或简介】：
Changing our stance to underweight refining and over-weight Integrateds.
DB's US equity strategist recently re-iterated his underweight oil on the relative
performance of the oils vs WTI prices (Fig 1). We believe that oil needs to break to
the $85 to $100/bbl range to generate out-performance. There is near term
support (Figs 2-6) from EPS upgrades for Integrateds that are trading at significant
P/E discounts vs market. But E&P, OSX & and even refining have higher relative
P/Es and EPS DOWNGRADE potential. Buy XOM, COP and FTO (on widening
heavy light spread).
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
ExxonMobil (XOM.N),USD68.76 Buy
Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N),USD86.56 Buy
ConocoPhillips (COP.N),USD55.32 Buy
Companies featured
ExxonMobil (XOM.N),USD68.76 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 8.47 4.01 4.98
P/E (x) 9.8 17.2 13.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 9.8 8.8
Chevron (CVX.N),USD79.50 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 4.81 6.51 8.38
P/E (x) 14.6 12.2 9.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 5.2 4.3
ConocoPhillips (COP.N),USD55.32 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 3.65 5.65 6.72
P/E (x) 12.5 9.8 8.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.1 2.3 1.9
Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N),USD86.56 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 3.79 5.17 6.95
P/E (x) 17.8 16.8 12.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 6.7 5.0
Marathon Oil (MRO.N),USD32.19 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.64 2.61 4.92
P/E (x) 18.4 12.3 6.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 4.2 3.0
Hess Corporation (HES.N),USD64.75 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.56 3.56 5.58
P/E (x) 22.0 18.2 11.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.2 4.3 3.4
Murphy Oil (MUR.N),USD60.40 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 3.58 4.05 6.42
P/E (x) 15.0 14.9 9.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.7 4.5 3.1
Canadian Natural (CNQ.TO),CAD79.25 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (CAD) 4.64 4.07 5.39
P/E (x) 13.0 19.5 14.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 7.5 6.1
Global Markets Research Company
What is the upside risk here for oil stocks? Our strategist prefers financials
Can oil break out to sustain $85-$100/bbl? Certainly the strength of Chinese
demand is remarkable, with a reported 63% YoY increase in car sales in March; if
that is not extraordinarily bullish, then keep in mind that the artificial cheapness of
the Yuan makes oil artificially expensive to Chinese consumers - a revaluation
higher of the Yuan would potentially be a repeat of the last one in ‘07 that was a
major contributor to the move to $147/bbl. Equally ex-China demand is livening up,
particularly in the US as the economy turns. However, offsetting the bull argument
on demand is spare capacity globally of around 5mb/d with significant inventory
still on ships (~40mbbls). That is being onshored with a flatter crude futures price
structure and higher freight rates, and has contributed to a counter-seasonal rise in
some OECD inventories. With onshoring we have been very concerned about the
"Battle of April" for US refiners, as the first two sets of April DOE data have hinted
towards major potential over-supply of refined products as turnarounds end and
refineries ramp up production. Hence we are moving to underweight refining.
There is a clear bull argument, the bear argument is more dangerous now
But global demand is strong enough to force OPEC production higher, with Saudi
notably recently increasing nominations to Asia in what we perceive as an ongoing
attempt to cap oil in their stated $70-$80/bbl price range. This is the key reason we
remain overall underweight oil - we do not think that it will break out of Saudi
control in 2010. We believe the Saudis are tolerant of $85/bbl as long as the global
economy is simultaneously recovering, but they are nervous about the prospect of
$90/bbbl+ crude in terms of 1) damaging the recovery of the economy 2)
encouraged a surge in high marginal cost oil projects and 3) being a great help to
Iran and Venezuela; particularly they have no desire to support the former, to say
the least. Our major concern with this call is that, if Saudi is increasing production
to cap oil prices, the market does not read it as more physical oil, pressuring
prices down, it reads it as less spare capacity, pressuring prices up. That, in our
view, is the single biggest risk to our call.
Valuation and risk – see more on pages 56-59; all P&Ls, BS & NAV inside
As we highlight in this note, Q2 WTI consensus is no $79/bbl with oil averaging
around $85/bbl quarter to date, for oil producers EPS estimates are clearly under
upward pressure. But that is essentially the sole part of the energy complex that is
in this position; all other segments have EPS estimates that are in line (refining) or
under downward pressure from here (E&Ps, OSX). We value oils top-down on
ROCE/WACC for a target multiple applied to through-the-cycle EPS to derive our
price target. We cross check our price targets based on bottom-up NAV analysis.
Oil price is the main general risk, volatility the big equity risk, and accidents owing
to negligence the big company-specific risk. TOP Picks: ExxonMobil, Oxy, COP.

Table of Contents
Getting tighter.............................................................................................. 3
Oil Share in S&P 500.................................................................................... 4
Implied Discounted Oil Price ...................................................................... 9
WTI Forward Curves vs Discounted Oil Price.......................................... 10
Company comments.................................................................................. 11
Summary of EPS changes ......................................................................... 14
WACC – CAPM vs Implied ......................................................................... 15
Price Performance ...................................................................................... 16
The Fundamentals – Q1 ............................................................................. 17
The Fundamentals – 2010.......................................................................... 18
The Futures Strips...................................................................................... 20
The valuations ............................................................................................ 22
EV/BOE: Cheapest barrels on Wall Street ............................................... 25
Reserves replacement/sustainability....................................................... 26
Volume growth........................................................................................... 27
Earnings momentum ................................................................................. 28
Net income sensitivity ............................................................................... 29
Upstream net income per barrel produced ............................................. 30
Downstream net income per barrel refined ............................................ 31
Cash return to shareholders...................................................................... 32
Return on capital employed...................................................................... 33
Management value .................................................................................... 34
ExxonMobil – NAV, P&L, Cashflow .......................................................... 36
Chevron – NAV, P&L, Cash flow ............................................................... 38
ConocoPhillips – NAV, P&L, Cashflow ..................................................... 40
Occidental – NAV, P&L, Cashflow ............................................................ 42
Marathon – NAV, P&L, Cashflow.............................................................. 44
Hess – NAV, P&L, Cashflow ...................................................................... 46
Murphy – NAV, P&L, Cashflow ................................................................. 48
SU – NAV, P&L, Cashflow ......................................................................... 50
CNQ – NAV, P&L, Cashflow....................................................................... 52
Valuation and risks .................................................................................... 54