【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月韩国石化行业研究报告
        【作者】：MIRAE ASSEt
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：51
        【目录或简介】：
Executive summary
Gradual recovery in the refining sector boosts sentiment
The refining sector has been making a steady recovery. We expect refining margins to rise long term given 1) the persistent adjustment in utilization rates of refineries in developed countries (eg the US), 2) likely recovery in petroleum demand backed by gradual improvement of economic indicators, 3) widened demand for heating oil due to freezing winter conditions in the US, and 4) decelerating growth in petroleum product inventory levels. We expect Korean refiners to return to profit in 1Q 2010 after having slid into operating losses in 2H 2009 on the back of the recent rise in refining margins for gasoline, light oil and naphtha.
Still high inventory levels and supply from China
At this juncture, we need to keep a close watch on petroleum inventory trends. We believe the refining margin decline has recently been slowing markedly given YoY growth in petroleum inventories has been declining since 4Q09. Notably, the YoY growth in US middle distillate inventories has historically been in inverse proportion to light oil margins, ie the refining margin rises when YoY inventory growth declines or turns into negative territory. Now that the YoY inventory growth has been trending down but US petroleum inventories stay at over 10% beyond the upper end of past average levels, we do not forecast refining margin to widen rapidly, going forward.
Another critical determinant of the region’s refining margin is China. In the past 10 years, China’s demand for petroleum products has grown 7% pa, driving global petroleum demand. In 2010, China’s demand is expected to remain strong, but its production expansion to lift exports will limit a rise in refining margin. Petroleum prices in China are fixed by the NDRC and guarantee local refineries a certain level of margins, encouraging them to expand output. Sinopec, which contributes to over half of China’s petroleum production, plans to increase its output by 17% YoY in 1H10. As a result, supply is expected to exceed robust demand in China.
Sharp rebound in utilization rates a potential risk
Refining margin to rise steadily on economic recovery, global refineries’ utilization adjustment, and slowing inventory growth
Refining margin unlikely to rise dramatically here on as petroleum inventories stay high
China’s demand remains strong but its price policy to encourage output will ensure supply stays ahead of demand
A moderate upturn in refining operating rate indicates an improvement in refining business sentiment; but a sharp margin hike could hurt the sentiment
The utilization rates of global refining facilities are rebounding gradually. While European facilities are operating at below 80%, US operation rate rose to above 80%. This not only reflects a recent rise in the refining margin, but also indicates the refining business sentiment is improving slowly. However, given that the current US refining capacity of 17.9mn bbl per day and a 10ppt rise in the utilization rate could increase supply by 1.8mn bbl per day, any sharp rise in the utilization rate will be a setback to refiners.
BUY SK Energy (top pick), GS Holdings; HOLD S-Oil
We initiate on SK Energy (096770, BUY, TP: W147,000) as our top pick for the sector as its 1) refining division is expected to turn profitable in 1Q10 on improved refining margin; 2) E&P division’s operating profit is expected to reach W500bn in FY11 on oil price rise and production capacity growth (up over 30% YoY); and 3) doubling of production capacity in rechargeable battery separators will take the company to the global No. 2 spot.
We are also positive on GS Holdings (078930, BUY, TP: W50,000) because it 1) boasts the domestic industry’s most profitable petrochemicals division, and 2) should benefit greatly when refining margin begins to widen with the potential completion of its third upgrading facility increases its complexity ratio to 32.7% in 2011.
Meanwhile, despite S-Oil’s potential to turn profitable in 2010, we are more conservative with a Hold rating (010950, HOLD, TP: W57,000), given its 1) sizable FY10 capex outlay of W1.2tn which will cut its profit available for dividend payout, and 2) reducing valuation attractiveness on growing net debt levels.
O
ur international oil price forecasts: $80/bbl in 2010, $100/bbl in 2011
We foresee the international oil price trending up in the medium term given 1) the decelerating pace of large oil field development and growing cost of crude oil production; 2) OPEC’s continuous adjustment of production quotas; and 3) the persistent geopolitical risk in the Middle East region.

C
ONTENTS
Investment summary.....................................................................................2
Gradual recovery of refining sector 2
Still high inventory level and supply from China 2
Rebound in utilization rate a potential risk to margins 2
Korean refinery top pick: SK Energy 2
Refining margin to rise steadily.....................................................................4
Refining margin growth necessary, sufficient to slow inventory growth 4
But petroleum inventories are still too high and need to be lowered 5
Strong China supply will keep market in slight oversupply...........................7
Better conditions for Chinese refiners to cap refining margin growth 7
Welcome China’s demand increase, but concerned about production growth 9
Chinese refineries to expand investment upon profit growth 11
Rebound in utilization rate a potential worry..............................................13
Upturn in utilization rates and possibility of supply increase 13
Capacity addition continues despite low utilization rates 14
SK Energy our top pick among domestic oil refiners...................................16
Company section
SK Energy (096770 KS, BUY): Upstream, a safe bet....................................20
GS Holdings (078930 KS, BUY): Economics of the complexity ratio...........33
S-Oil (010950 KS, HOLD): Staying in the doldrums.....................................42
Analyst profile..............................................................................................50