【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月韩国石化行业研究报告
        【作者】：三星证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：


Upgrading sector to OVERWEIGHT: Looking at next year, we upgrade the oil-refining
sector from NEUTRAL to OVERWEIGHT, expecting supply-demand dynamics in the
Asian petroleum product market to begin visibly improving between 2Q and the end of
the year. Some are concerned that sluggish earnings from petrochemical products
such as BTX and p-Xylene will weigh on oil refiners’ overall earnings in 2010. We,
however, expect such profitability declines to be easily offset by refining-margin
improvements.
 Forex-rate movements to favor refiners: We expect the won/dollar rate to move in
favor of oil refiners next year, dropping to KRW1,100/USD by end-2010 making an
annual average rate of KRW1,169/USD—respective declines of KRW70/USD and
KRW108/USD from anticipated 2009 levels. Such won appreciation should benefit
refiners, given their massive overseas loans and ability to flexibly adjust payment
periods (usance) to gain from forex trends. Oil prices, meanwhile, should stay mostly
flat y-y in 2010, having little effect on earnings, before boosting momentum in 2011.
 SK Energy still our top pick; upgrading S-Oil to BUY(L): Over 2H03-2004 when
refining margins sharply improved, the cumulative performances of SK Energy and SOil
shares vs the Kospi outperformed the Kospi by almost 100%pts. We expect an
upcoming improvement in refining margin to once again enable refineries (and their
holding companies) to outperform the market. We keep SK Energy as our top pick—
with a BUY(M) rating and six-month target price of KRW155,000—as, even if refining
margins recover only moderately, the firm has: 1) an exploration and production (E&P)
business whose value is rising on solid oil prices; and 2) a future growth engine after
expanding into the rechargeable battery business. We also like S-Oil as it is a pure
refinery play capable of delivering high cumulative returns in times of rising refining
margins—we upgrade the stock to BUY(L) with a KRW70,000 target price,
recommending that investors accumulate on corrections. In contrast, we maintain
HOLD(M) on GS Holdings, as subsidiary GS Caltex has more exposure than others to
the petrochemical business.