Contents

The torrid pace of energy demand and how
regulators are not helping 3
China – Getting to 2020 5
The Brief version of the big picture 5
Regulatory change - Moving in the wrong direction 9
India – Postponing the problem 14
Oil import dependency to increase 14
Oil Bonds – it keeps getting worse 14
BoP will be under strain 15
Weak Government = No price decontrol 15
Oil consumption mirroring economic growth, finally… 16
“Controlled” petrol/diesel prices will contribute to growth 17
Thailand – More gas the better 18
Implications of importing gas – Higher prices 19
Companies 23
PetroChina (0857.HK) 24
Sell: Earnings Disappointment With or Without Windfall Tax Cut 24
CNOOC (0883.HK) 31
Better Value, Lower Risk 31
Sinopec (0386.HK) 37
Looking for a Savior 37
Oil & Natural Gas (ONGC.BO) 43
Moderate Leverage to Crude; Government Policy a Concern 43
Reliance Industries (RELI.BO) 47
India’s Own Super-Major 47
GAIL (GAIL.BO) 50
India’s Gas Carrier 50
Cairn India (CAIL.BO) 53
Highest Leverage to Crude 53
PTT (PTT.BK) 56
Buy: Time to Get Out of the Slump 56
PTT E&P (PTTE.BK) 62
Buy: Growth is the Key Word 62
Oil & Gas Development (OGDC.KA) 68
Strong Volume Growth but Wait Continues for Bottom Line 68
Pakistan Oil Fields (PKOL.KA) 74
Growth Next Year 74
Appendix A-1 81