【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月英国石化行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：33
        【目录或简介】：
Light at the end of refining tunnel?
Supported by a 39% y/y improvement in realisations we expect upstream profits
to show a healthy sequential and y/y improvement. Whilst refining margins remain
some way below prior year levels, there has been a marked improvement over the
trough of Q4 which should drive an impressive q/q turnaround in downstream
earnings. Overall, our forecasts suggest y/y US$ earnings growth of 42% across
the group. We continue to believe the market is too bearish in its view of the
potential for both the future return on, and growth in, invested capital.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Results
Top picks
BG Group (BG.L),GBP1,145.00 Buy
BP (BP.L),GBP642.50 Buy
Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDSa.L),GBP1,985.00 Buy
Sector EPS growth Q1'10E (US$) %
101%
82%
71%
43%
37%
19%
14%
8% 3%
-20% -7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
OMV
BP
Statoil
Sector
RDS
Total
Galp
BG
ENI
Repsol
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates
Earnings forecast summary
EPS (local currency) Date Q1 09a Q1 10E 􀃌 y/y
BP ($) 27th Apr 0.14 0.25 82%
RDS ($) 28th Apr 0.49 0.67 37%
Total (