DAY #11
1.主题
Bloomberg Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.2013
2.摘要
The Wave Principle is a model with which one can practice technical analysis by recognizing wave patterns resulting from shifts in crowd psychology.
This situation—when either you have a beautiful wave pattern that is not supported by a technical indicator or you have a flashing technical indicator that does not jibe with the wave pattern—can actually help you manage your risk better.
Just as the motto of many salespeople is “always be closing,” the motto of many professional traders is “always be managing risk.”
A successful trade is made up of three ingredients—the psychology of the trader (60 percent), risk management (about 30 percent), and technique (only about 10 percent).
After all, your goal as a trader is to do one thing—make money.
Your goal is not to sell at top tick or buy at bottom tick.
Your goal is not to be perfect on every trade or to have the most optimal stop on every trade.
Don’t berate yourself for imperfection.
Although you might want to squeeze all the money you can out of each and every trade, that attitude can lead to some adverse effects, such as getting into a trade prematurely.
As a trader, it is wiser to be content with capturing 60 to 80 percent of a trend, rather than competing with the cowboys and ego-traders who try to pick the top or bottom in the market.
By itself, a triangle can form only in the wave four, B, or X positions.
Most important for a trader, a triangle always precedes the final wave of a sequence.
By combining multiple forms of technical analysis to arrive at a trading decision, you increase the odds for a successful outcome.
Even so, it is important to remember that the risks of trading can only be reduced, never eliminated.
The challenge is to find your own comfort zone between what analysis tells you to do and what you feel comfortable doing.
Remember that all corrections must achieve some net retracement of the wave they correct.
As a guideline, the duration of wave five may equal the duration of waves one through three, multiplied by .382, .5, or .618.
Even with a methodology, discipline, and money management techniques, impatience can destroy your trades.
How do you overcome the tendency to be impatient? By understanding the two triggers that cause it: fear and boredom.
The first step in overcoming impatience is to consciously define the minimum requirements of an acceptable trade setup and vow to accept nothing less.
Next, feel comfortable in knowing that the markets will be around tomorrow, next week, next year, and many years after, so there is plenty of time to wait for the ideal opportunity.
Remember, trading is not a race, and overtrading does little to improve your bottom line.
If there is one practice that will improve your trading skills, it is patience.
Be patient, and focus on trading textbook wave patterns and high-confidence trade setups like the ones we have described in this book.
When it comes to being a consistently successful trader, it’s all about quality—not quantity.
An excellent example of a realistic expectation for a trader in his or her first year should be to avoid losing money.
If you shoot for a 0 percent return and achieve it, then you are ahead of the crowd and well on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader.
In year two, try simply for a 5 or 10 percent return.
Using Elliott wave analysis can help provide the structural template that may help keep your head clear once you have initiated a trade and the market is moving fast; however, it cannot protect you from your emotions. They will become powerful adversaries when your own money is involved.
Technical indicators fall into three categories:
①.sentiment indicators——>measures of investor psychology；
②.momentum indicators——>changes in price, breadth, and volume；
③.patterns outside of Elliott wave——>such as time cycles and head-and-shoulders formations；
Just keep it simple and use what works best for you.
Using a large array of indicators can be more of a hindrance than a help.
3.心得感悟
从波浪分析的角度重分类技术指标：
①.情绪指标
②.动量指标——>价格变动率、成交量变动率、市场宽度
③.波浪衍生指标——>周期分析、头肩底etc
顶尖交易员的三大素质占比：
①.心理控制——>60%
②.风险调整——>30%
③.技术方法——>10%
交易员要牢记唯一使命：盈利！！
盈利 ≠ 抄底逃顶
盈利 ≠ 完美的出入点位
压盘厘清概念的内涵与外延，不为错误观念所扰。
高水准交易，要辨清其中的nuance：
次数——>求质，勿求量
目标——>求实，勿求虚
模型——>求稳，勿求险
时机——>求缓，勿求急
名利——>求利，勿求名
风格——>求简，勿求繁
3大技术指标来帮忙：
MACD——>趋势派代言人
RSI——>动量派代言人
K——>拐点派代言人
别漏了的最高境界：
以意驭刀，以逸待劳
4.时间统计
昨日阅读5小时，累计455小时
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