昨日阅读时间1小时，累计阅读时间163小时。

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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3524948-1-1.html
Option Volatility and Pricing- Advanced Trading Strategies and techniques

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
继续读期权价差交易。
Page150.   
"To understand why, consider the result of choosing between a 95/100
and a 100/105 bull call spread under three different scenarios. In scenario 1, the market rises and is at 110 at expiration. If this happens, both
spreads will show a profit because they will both widen to their maximum value of 5.00. In scenario 2, the market drops and is at 90 at expiration.
Now both spreads will show a loss because they will both collapse to 0. Finally, consider the case where the underlying market fails to rise but also
does not fall. It simply remains at 100 until expiration. If this happens, the 100/105 spread will collapse to 0, while the 95/100 spread will widen to
its maximum value of 5.00. The 95/100 spread is always more valuable than the 100/105 spread because it profits in more cases. The 100/105
spread needs the market to rise to show a profit. The 95/100 spread does not need the market to rise; it just needs for the market not to fall.
Because the 100/105 spread requires movement, it has a positive gamma and, consequently, a negative theta. It will decline in value as time
passes. The 95/100 spread will profit even if the market sits still. It has a positive theta and, consequently, a negative gamma.
Note also the results if the market does move. If the market rises to 110, both spreads will show a profit, but the 100/105 spread will show a
greater profit because it was purchased at a lower price. If the market falls to 90, both spreads will show a loss, but the 100/105 spread, because
of its lower price, will show a smaller loss. If there is a greater likelihood that the market will move, we will always prefer the 100/105 spread. We
will maximize our profits when we are right, and we will minimize our losses when we are wrong. The likelihood of movement will depend on our
estimate of volatility. If our estimate is higher than the implied volatility, we are saying that there is a greater likelihood of movement, so we prefer
the 100/105 spread. If our estimate of volatility is lower than the implied volatility, we are saying that there is a lower likelihood of movement, so we
prefer the 95/100 spread."


3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
策略的构建价格是评估策略的重要指标。 但价格总是相对的，好东西通常价格更贵，关键在于要深刻了解贵出来的部分它的价值在哪里。考虑一个具体的例子。
当前股票价格为100元，有两个牛市价差供选择， 95-100的价差和100-105的价差。 从构建成本来看， 95-100的价差更贵，因此潜在最大获利的空间相对较小，
那是不是意味着100-105的价差更好呢。 考虑三种情况
1. 股票价差低于95，两个组合都亏钱。而且95-100的价差亏得更多。
2. 股票价格等于100，95-100的价差盈利，100-105的价差亏损。
3. 股票价格等于105，两个组合都盈利，而且100-105盈利更多。
那么如何选择，还是取决于对市场的判断。如果认为大概率有上涨超过5%，那么100-105价差会是更好的选择。
但是对于该价差来说，随着股价的上涨，Gamma会变为负数。 到后期波动反而对组合不利。



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0.8 小时

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21小时

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这次为什么是这么多天？

昨日阅读5小时，累计阅读65小时。

今日阅读和学习时间5小时，累计阅读和学习时间535小时，
学习和投资心得：
食品饮料中的牛股及指数基金：
食品饮料历来是牛股集中营，无论中外，比如美国的可口可乐，股神巴菲特的爱股，曾为其带来数百亿美元盈利。A股中的茅台更是股王，股价无出其左右，但凡有盖过茅台风头的，最后的下场都是面目全非。食品饮料这么牛？几点原因：

1. 开门七件事，柴米油盐酱醋茶。大部分食品都是人类生存的必需品，而且长时间内不会发生变化，比如酱油吃了百千年，酿造手法和使用的原料几无变化。这种经营坏境给股东吃了一颗定心丸，因为谁敢长期持有未来N年有可能消失的行业，比如很多电子产品即如此，MP3、收音机、电视等等；

2. 食品饮料股大都拥有很深的护城河。比如茅台只能诞生在茅台镇，榨菜只有涪陵的好吃，很多食品饮料股都有强烈的地域属性，同样的东西，换到其他地方生产，消费者就是不认，这种地域属性是天然的护城河，全世界独一份；

3. 盈利能力非同一般。比如茅台，几乎不需要融资，每年赚的钱都花不完，只能大手笔分红，而高分红率恰恰是大资金喜欢的，这些资金持股往往具有稳定性，不会天天高抛低吸，拉长时间看，很多食品饮料股都是慢牛，一般不会大起大落。

4. 容易形成品牌垄断。大部分消费者熟知的品牌不超过2个，一旦用习惯了往往很难改变，比如榨菜我只买涪陵，酱油买海天，醋是恒顺，用户忠诚度非常高，只要建立起品牌认知，企业不作死，一般赚钱都不是问题；

5. 通货膨胀受益股。食品饮料大部分是to c业务，也就是说厂家直接卖给消费者或经销商，当成本上升时，企业可以顺利的提价，将成本压力向下游传导，甚至会出现产品涨价几毛钱，业绩暴涨数亿的情况，比如榨菜，一袋几块钱，加个几毛的消费者一般不会有强烈的抵触。而且天然的，毛爷爷越来越不值钱，食品加个上涨是早晚的事，这说明，即使企业销售不扩大规模，仅仅依靠涨价就能带来可观的利润。

昨日阅读1小时，累积阅读53小时

今日6-23日，阅读170分钟，本年度248小时

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6月23日

昨日阅读3小时，累计61小时

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-5128209-1-1.html



        忽略伴侣情感沟通邀请的人在工作中也会四处碰壁。
        研究表明，不能恰当回应沟通邀请的人同他人的争执也比普通人多。

        沟通邀请被忽视，孩子容易悲观、意志消沉、无法与他人长久相处。他们不但缺乏与朋友交往的能力，学业上也无法取得令人满意的成绩，身体素质也相对较差。

        一个不知道如何同父母进行情感沟通的孩子，成年后，也无法顺利同其他任何人沟通心声。
        刻意也好，无意也罢，父母的言传身教是培养孩子情感沟通能力的首任老师。
        总是不耐烦甚至发怒的父母会使得孩子长期处于压抑的状态，进而影响孩子大脑和神经系统的发育。事实上，生活在这种家庭环境中的孩子长大成人后也欠缺处理压力的能力，他们可能会变得十分冷酷。

        由于不能释放情感压力，他们无法专注地做事，无法专注地听别人讲话，无法控制不良情绪，无法恰当理解伙伴发出的沟通邀请。长大成人后，面对复杂的人际交往活动，如职场交往、同朋友或异性交往，他们更是一头雾水，无所适从。

        不管你的孩子现在处于什么年龄段，从现在开始请关注他们的情感需求，积极回应他们的沟通邀请。父母往往需要有足够的耐心和十足的热情才能做到这一点。也许你的孩子用冷漠的顺从或反抗回报你的一切付出。但是随着时间的推移，终有一天，你的付出会有回报，孩子会信任你，并对你敞开心扉，与你沟通。

婚姻中的情感沟通危机

        孩提时代情感沟通方面存在的问题不会凭空消失，它们跟随孩子步入成年，继续影响甚至阻碍他们找到生命的另一半。

        情感沟通能力会影响约会的成败，这一点毋庸置疑。
        19.8/195
        成功俘获爱情的人往往擅长读懂对方心思并恰当地作出反应，那些情场失意的人往往缺少这种能力。

        婚姻不幸的人患疾病的概率高于一般人。
        夫妻情感沟通不当所带来的压力也会影响孩子的幸福成长。

        同成人交往对很多人来说是个挑战，竞争和嫉妒是阻碍我们正常交往的原因之一，尤其是当我们处理同兄弟姐妹的关系时。信任和亲疏距离则是影响我们同新结交的朋友交往时的重要因素。

        拥有好朋友的人通常承受的压力更少，寿命更长。完美的人际关系比基因更能决定一个人的寿命。我们同他人的关系以及我们能从周围获得的支持和帮助，是决定我们寿命长短的关键因素。

        结论很简单，拥有亲朋好友能让你的生活更美满。当生活的狂风暴雨在你身边肆虐时，如离婚、失业、疾病或失去亲人等，朋友的陪伴使你变得更有力量。
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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
区块链与新能源汽车产业会擦出怎样的火花？http://nev.ofweek.com/2018-06/ART-71008-8500-30242954_3.html

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
汽车区块链系统也可以让车主们允许其他人暂时使用他们的车辆。你可以简单地使用这个应用程序远程解锁汽车，让朋友从车后座取走被遗忘的毛衣。你甚至可以给第三方递送公司（比如UPS）解锁汽车的授权，让它们在行李箱中留下包裹。
随着当下电动汽车产业的发展，保时捷认为车主可以使用区块链支付电动汽车的充电费。想象一下，如果每次你给汽车充电，这个动作就会在区块链上触发一个智能合同，从你的账户中取出适当的钱，然后把它转移给充电站。
汽车产业的发展也正朝着无人化的方向发展，汽车制造商可以使用区块链来改进自动驾驶系统。当一辆自动驾驶汽车踏上行程时，区块链会记录下它的旅行数据。这些数据可以包括各种信息，比如关于区域天气状况的信息、常见交通模式等。网络中的其他车辆可以访问这些信息。
据路透社报道，宝马公司正在与总部位于伦敦的区块链初创公司Circulor进行合作，以确保他们电动汽车电池所用的稀有金属钴的来源符合到达要求。
今年2月份，戴姆勒推出了一个基于他们自家区块链的加密货币——mobiCOINS项目。在3个月中，由500名司机构成的测试小组将在他们的车辆以环保方式运行时收到mobiCOINS。这些方式包括滑行到停车，将引擎切换到ECO模式，并保持低速行驶速度等。
越来越多的汽车制造商开始考虑这个行业的发展方向，但仍然有太多的问题悬而未决。
目前物联网和某些智慧城市已经将这一趋势朝更积极的方向发展了，但区块链技术的融入无疑是一项重大的升级，助力汽车产业朝着更加节能环保和智能网联化的方向发展。

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
一个令人迷惑的技术，促进人们思考。回想汽车从机械式到电喷，从追求速度到环保节能，如今和智慧城市相结合，关键是不断的融入。一切都可变化。追求永无止境。同时希望技术应用的同时能够考虑到法规的同步和健全。

4.昨日你阅读的时间量
0.5小时

5.你参与活动至今的总时间量
31.5小时

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读168小时

1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
《聪明的投资者》第7-8章

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
首先，预期收益已经完全包含在它所支付的股价中了；其次，他对未来的判断可能是错误的。
为了在长时间内获得比一般投资更好的结果，一种选择或操作策略必须具备两项优势：（1）它必须能达到基本稳健所要求的客观或合理标准；（2）它必须有别于大多数投资者或投机者采用的策略。
三个可用于“积极投资”的领域：不太受欢迎的大公司；购买廉价证券；一些“特殊”情况
我们既无法根据逻辑，也无法根据实际经历来认为，任何一个普通的投资者，能够比公众更成功的预测出市场的变化趋势。
随着他们被越来越多的人接受，其可靠性一般会下降。
股市上的任何赚钱方法，只要它容易理解并且被许多人采纳，那么，这种方法就会因为太简单、太容易而无法持久。
股市经常会出现严重的错误，而且敏锐和大胆的投资者有时可以利用其明显存在的错误。
我们并不认为，投资者非要等到市场价格最低时才去购买，因为这可能要等很长时间，很有可能造成收入损失，并且也有可能错过投资机会。

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
在读这本书之前，已经看过了其它的一些投资书，所以格林厄姆的很多观点，在别的书中都看过了，给人的新鲜感并不是很强烈。当然，那些人的观点极有可能是从格雷厄姆这里吸收的，他才是价值投资的鼻祖。
目前看到这里，感觉还是偏重与理论的说教，告诉我们不要去择时，买入的股票价格要足够安全。具体如何分析公司，到底怎样一个公司的股价才算便宜，介绍的并不深入，可能这些内容都是在《证券分析》中介绍的吧。
格雷厄姆建议有钱就要卖股票，而不是等到市场价格最低时才去购买，有点出乎我的意料。我本来以为他会教育大家要足够耐心，等待超跌机会的出现。当然，不是随便找只股票就买，需要在各种证券中，寻找产生廉价交易的机会。说白了，还是要勤奋，不停的去寻找值得交易的机会。

今日第29天，阅读1小时，累计阅读51小时。其中缺席4天。

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读48小时

2018-06-23

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读313小时

1. 今天阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接:
Continue to read the 18 chapter of the book <<SECRETS OF POWER NEGOTIATING>> BY ROGER DAWSON
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B004M8R ... ncoding=UTF8&btkr=1
Online reading: 10 Hard-Bargaining Tactics to Watch Out for in a Negotiation:
http://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily ... ics-in-negotiation/

2. 今天阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录:
Much more commonly, business negotiations involve multiple issues. As a result, these so-called integrative negotiations give parties the potential to create win-win outcomes, or mutually beneficial agreements. Business negotiators can negotiate by brainstorming creative solutions, identifying differences in preferences that can be ripe for tradeoffs, and building trust.
Unfortunately, when parties resort to hard-bargaining tactics in negotiations with integrative potential, they risk missing out on these benefits. Because negotiators tend to respond in the way they are treated, one party’s negotiation hardball tactics can create a vicious cycle of threats, demands, and other hardball strategies. This pattern can create a hard-bargaining negotiation that easily deteriorates into impasse, distrust, or a deal that’s supbar for everyone involved.
10 Common Hard-Bargaining Tactics & Negotiation Skills
To prevent your negotiation from disintegrating into hard-bargaining tactics, you first need to make a commitment not to engage in these tactics yourself. Remember that there are typically better ways of meeting your goals, such as building trust, asking lots of questions, and exploring differences.
Next, you need to prepare for your counterpart’s hard-bargaining tactics. To do so, you first will have to be able to identify them. In their book Beyond Winning: Negotiating to Create Value in Deals and Disputes, Robert Mnookin, Scott Peppet, and Andrew Tulumello offer advice to avoid being caught off-guard by hard bargainers. The better prepared we are for hard-bargaining strategies in negotiation, the better able we will be to defuse them.
Here is a list of the 10 hardball tactics in negotiation to watch out for from the authors of Beyond Winning:
1. Extreme demands followed up by small, slow concessions. Perhaps the most common of all hard-bargaining tactics, this one protects dealmakers from making concessions too quickly. However, it can keep parties from making a deal and unnecessarily drag out business negotiations. To head off this tactic, have a clear sense of your own goals, best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA), and bottom line – and don’t be rattled by an aggressive opponent.
2. Commitment tactics. Your opponent may say that his hands are tied or that he has only limited discretion to negotiate with you. Do what you can to find out if these commitment tactics are genuine. You may find that you need to negotiate with someone who has greater authority to do business with you.
3. Take-it-or-leave-it negotiation strategy. Offers should rarely be nonnegotiable. To defuse this hard-bargaining tactic, try ignoring it and focus on the content of the offer instead, then make a counter-offer that meets both parties’ needs.
4. Inviting unreciprocated offers. When you make an offer, you may find that your counterpart asks you to make a concession before making a counteroffer herself. Don’t bid against yourself by reducing your demands; instead, indicate that you are waiting for a counteroffer.
5. Trying to make you flinch. Sometimes you may find that your opponent keeps making greater and greater demands, waiting for you to reach your breaking point and concede. Name the hard-bargaining tactic and clarify that you will only engage in a reciprocal exchange of offers.
6. Personal insults and feather ruffling. Personal attacks can feed on your insecurities and make you vulnerable. Take a break if you feel yourself getting flustered, and let the other party know that you won’t tolerate insults and other cheap ploys.
7. Bluffing, puffing, and lying. Exaggerating and misrepresenting facts can throw you off guard. Be skeptical about claims that seem too good to be true and investigate them closely.
8. Threats and warnings. Want to know how to deal with threats? The first step is recognizing threats and oblique warnings as the hard-bargaining tactics they are. Ignoring a threat and naming a threat can be two effective strategies for defusing them.
9. Belittling your alternatives. The other party might try to make you cave in by belittling your BATNA. Don’t let her shake your resolve.
10. Good cop, bad cop. When facing off with a two-negotiator team, you may find that one person is reasonable and the other is tough. Realize that they are working together and don’t be taken in by such hard-bargaining tactics.
Are there any other hard-bargaining strategies in negotiation that you’ve encountered that you would add to this list? We would love to hear from you!

3. 今天阅读的自我思考点评感想
The 10 Common Hard-Bargaining Tactics are most often occurring gambits in practice, some of them have been covered by my previous notes and summary on the book chapters 1-17 for “SECRETS OF POWER NEGOTIATING”. It is nice to hear from the second voice on what are important on negotiating tactics.
Key points of Positioning for Easy Acceptance:
1). If the other person is proud of his ability to negotiate, his need to win may stop you from
reaching agreement.
2). Position the other person to feel good about giving in to you with a small concession made
just at the last moment.
3). Because timing is more important than the size of the concession, the concession can be
ridiculously small ans still be effective.
4). Always congratulate the other person when you get through negotiating, however poorly
you think he did.