昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读488小时

昨天阅读2小时，累计时间从昨天开始2小时

昨日阅读3小时，累积阅读3小时   ~~~

昨日阅读2小时,累计阅读296小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读97小时

康泰生物纪要
https://xueqiu.com/1772976389/110711602

昨日阅读1小时，累积阅读97小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读201小时。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读235小时

1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
为何眼下最重要的事是想尽一切办法恢复银行信用投放https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_2276668

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
新闻三：据《21世纪经济报道》报道，网传央行近日窗口指导银行，（1）对于贷款投放，较月初报送贷款额度外的多增部分（额外投放），按1：1给予MLF资金（多增部分为普通贷款，不鼓励票据和同业借款）；（2）对于信用债投资，AA+及以上评级按1：1比例给予MLF，AA+以下评级按1：2给予MLF资金（要求必须为产业类，即金融债、城投债都不算）。
但是，因为遏制不合意的融资（比如用非标支持城投），导致社融和M2不好了，最好是用其他合意的融资来补上，比如符合政策的贷款或债券等。
信用收缩，最大的后果是很多原本靠借新还旧续命的企业，一旦再融资断掉，瞬间就会违约，然后是银行发生坏账。紧接着，银行在坏账的恐惧下继续收缩信用，然后更多企业开始违约，然后银行更多坏账……这就是可怕的金融正反馈，最后是系统性风险。
“新闻三”主要是为银行提供基础货币（流动性），而且要求定向用于普通贷款、产业债。MLF成本相对低廉，在贷款利率不变的情况下，这笔贷款的资金成本下降了，那么风险溢价就高了，能够覆盖更多风险，从而提升银行放贷意愿
总之，这次央行、银保监同时采取措施，从多个角度推进银行信用投放的能力和意愿，力图恢复银行体系的信用投放功能，防止过多企业出现因再融资断裂而违约，进而危及银行自身和宏观经济。

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
从这篇文章来看，真的就是在当前主动去杠杆刺破信用风险的形式下做出了说明如何倒逼基础货币进入实体经济，同时保持债券市场相对稳定。向民营小微企业解决融资难的问题。在目前扩大金融开放的形势下推动业务服务转型。

4.昨日你阅读的时间量
0.5小时

5.你参与活动至今的总时间量
35小时

昨日阅读1小时，总阅读572小时

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读358小时。

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读172小时

阅读1小时，累计阅读68小时

昨日阅读2小时，累计121小时

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-2976772-1-1.html

《喜悦无处不在》
========================================
55.
当两大力量抗衡时，
胜利将属于
知道如何让步的那方。

生活有其自身的轨迹，迂回曲折不可预测，但总是越来越仁慈。
每一个失必定也是一个得，除非那个失被一颗困惑的心所判断。

如果你想认识我，去认识你的心。


54.
对自己富于同情，
你与世上众生都和解了。


最好的领导人
顺从众人的意愿。

53.
觉悟的心满足于待在最低、最少创造力的位置。从那里面，万事万物被创造出来，最低处就是最高处。

52.
你有你的打算，可是现实另有安排。

所有的河流都流向海洋，
因为它比它们的地势低。
谦卑让它具有力量。

51.
在问题出现之前做好预防，
在事情发生前安排妥当。

当人们认为自己知道答案，引导他们很难；
当人们知道自己不知道时，他们将发现自己的路。
-----------------------分割线----------------------
MIT video continued

昨日 2h
累计 121h

昨天阅读1小时，总计阅读488小时

20180719昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读22小时。

昨日阅读0.5小时，累计阅读264.5小时

昨天阅读2小时，累计阅读152小时

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读324小时

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读435小时      
挑战第一百四十三天   读13页书，完成当日目标

7月第19天
昨日阅读3小时，累计阅读355小时

1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐：
山东大学陈强老师《高级计量经济学及stata应用（第2版）》-正文部分的do文件（04章-30章）
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3679489-1-1.html


2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
今天开始读：《Definitive Guide to Position Sizing》:Chapter 1
The Golden Rules of Trading
I bought my first stock when I was 16 years old in 1962. And, comsidering the knowledge I had about investing at the time, I did a fairly good job of researching the stock.  First, I read an article in Fortune Magazine on the top growth stocks for the year 1961.  The stock I picked was a small mobile home manufacturer, called Poloron, which had the highest growth in its earnings per share of any stock surveyed by Fortune during 1961.  With that I thought I had done my homework.  It was probably more homework than the average person does before he buys his first stock.
Anyway, the stock was selling for $8 per share.  I bought 100 shares with the $800 I’d saved up, which was a lot of money in those days for a 16 year old.  Within a year or so, the stock went as high as $20 per share.  In fact, I don’t think I lost any money initially ---- the stock just did a steady climb.  I was deliciously happy, and I’d more than doubled my money.  Then it started ot go down. I had no idea that you should sell falling stocks to preserve your profits, so eventully it went below my $8 purchase price.
Now that I was losing money, what did I do? Did I re-evaluate the stock fundamentals? Was it still the top stock in terms of earning per share? Was it still increasing its earnings per share?  I didn’t look at any of that information.
Did I look to see if there was a better stock, based upon my initial screening criteria ( and remember several years had now passed )?  No, I didn’t.  I’d already selected my stock, so I didn’t think I needed to do anything more. After all, isn’t success all about selecting the right stock and holding it for the rest of your life?  At least that’s what I thought at the time.
Instead, I just assumed that the same criteria held and the stock was an ever better buy now that it was valued at less than I paid for it. When it hit $4 per share, it must have been twice as good as it was when I originally bought the stock at $8, so I bought another hundred shares.  And when it hit $2per share, it seemed like it was an even better buy, so I bought another hundred shares.  I now had $1,400 invested in this stock and I owned 300 shares. ( When Warren Buffett was about that age, he bought a 40 acre farm for $1,400 ---- which he rented out! It was a much better buy. )
What do you think happened?  Within another year or so Poloron went bankrupt. My $1,400 went to zero.  I have no idea where those shares are; I wish I did because I’d frame them.  But that stock is now totally worthless.  And when I ask people at my workshops, “How many of you have stock that is now worthless?” at least half of the people in the workshop are usually willing to raise their hands.  That says something to me. A lot of companies end up going bankrupt!
So What Was my mistake? Conventiona1 wisdom would say that I picked the wrong stock just think about it. In the early 1960s, I invested $1,400 in the stock market If I had putthat $1400 in Microsoft when it was founded in 1975, that inveslment would be worth mi11ions. If I had Put that $1,400 in Inte1 when it was founded in 1968 or even when it  went public in 1978, that investment would be worth mi11ions. Even an investment in the origina1 DOW Jones Industria1  stock, Genera1 Electric, in 1968 wou1d be worth a sma1l fortune today, I could have put $l,400 into Berkshire  Hathaway when it was founded in 1964 and today have over $5 mi11ion from that one investment so it wou1d seem that my mistake was that I invested in the wrong s1ock.
That argument, in my opinion, is totally fallacious. For every stock I mentioned that wou1d have made me millions, there are thousands of companies that, justlike the one I invested in, no longer exist. So the first argument is that my chances of finding one of those great companies that would have made me mi11ions were very, very sma11. If your criteria is picking the right stock, no matter how good your criteria are, you are sti1l more 1ikely to pick a stock that wi1l eventua11y go bankrupt than you are of finding one that wi1l make you a fortune.
Second, let's look at the stock I bought. It went from $8 to $20 ---- that's a 150% gain ---- in about year. That doesn't sound like I bought the wrong slock. Where did I go wrong?
        I didn't establish any initia1 risk parameters to say,"I'm wrong about this stock if it drops to this point." If you don't know how to do that, then a 25% drop is usua1ly sufficient to say that something is wrong. Thus, my initia1 stop 1oss should have been about $2 per share so that I would get out if the stock dropped to $6 per share.
        Second I had no way to take profits. I could have said:"If this stock doub1es, I'll get out." I could have established a 25% trailing stop. That means that whenever the stock makes a new high, a 25% drop from that point becomes my exit.  Table 1-1 shows my stock at various points and how a 25% trailing stop would have worked.
Notice, as shown in the table, that as the price gets higher, my trailing stop gets higher. And as the price goes down, my stop doesn't change. Thus, when the price goes to $20 and then back down to $15, I'm out.  I have a profit of $7 per share Since my initial investment was $8, I have a profit of 87.5%. However, since my initial risk would have been only $2, my $7 profit is actually 3.5 times my initial risk.
Because I didn't have a stop, my initial risk was $8 per share. That means that at the high price of $20 per share, I only had a profit that was 1.5 times my initial risk.
……

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
      看到大师年青时就亏了那么多钱，还真有点对自己佩服：我是很大年纪才亏了很多的钱。只是一直避免去认真面对自己的真心想法和信念。同时也没有从风险回报比率的角度去思考这些。
        那么，如果再来一次的话，还会犯同样的错误。还会亏钱，还会亏的几乎为零。因为信念没有改变，就会在遇到相同的情况时产生同样的想法，做出相似的决策……
        系统性地解决是如此重要，以至于如果没有设计好，并且经过检验的系统，就不入市！

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读115小时

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约655小时。
学习和投资心得：
《证券分析》过时了吗？
格雷厄姆的《证券分析》第一版出版于1934年，距今已经76年，比我们很多人的爸爸妈妈甚至爷爷姐姐年龄还要大，经过76年之后，《证券分析》过时了吗？1984 年，在哥伦比亚大学纪念格雷厄姆与多德合著的《证券分析》出版50周年的庆祝活动中，巴菲特——这位格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚大学的投资课上唯一给了“A＋”的最优秀的学生进行了一次演讲，他在演讲中回顾了50年来格雷厄姆的追随者们采用价值投资策略持续战胜市场的无可争议的事实，有力反击了那些认为格雷厄姆在《证券分析》书中首次提出的价值投资策略已经过时的论调，总结归纳出价值投资策略的精髓，在投资界具有非常大的影响力。巴菲特说道，格雷厄姆和多德“寻找价值相对于价格具有一个显著的安全边际”的证券分析方法难道已经过时了吗？许多教授在他们编写的大部头教科书中都作出这一论断，他们口口声声宣称股票市场是有效的，也就是说股价反映了所有关于公司发展前景和经济状况的所有信息。这些理论家们声称，由于聪明的股票分析师利用了所有可获取的信息进行分析判断，从而使股价总是正确无误地保持在合理的水平，因此根本不存在价值被市场低估的股票。至于那些年复一年击败市场的投资者，只不过是类似彩票连续中奖的少数幸运儿。一位教授在他编写的当今十分流行的教科书中写道：“如果股价完全反映了所有可获取的信息，这些投资技巧将毫无用处。”“哈哈，也许如此。但我想向大家介绍一群年复一年击败标准普尔500股票指数的投资者，他们的经历无可辩驳地表明，那种认为他们持续战胜市场只是偶然事件的简单看法是很难成立的，我们必须深入探究其根本原因。之所以如此，一个关键事实是，这些股市大赢家我都非常熟悉，并很早就被公认为超级投资者，其中成名最晚的那位也在15年前就名扬一时。如果事实并非如此，我只是最近搜索了成千上万的投资记录，从中选出几个业绩优秀的人在此向各位介绍，那么，你听到此处就可以把我赶走了。我要补充说明的是，他们的投资业绩记录都已经过严格的审计。另外，我还要补充说明一下，我还认识许多选择这些投资管理人的客户，他们这些年来获得的投资收益与这些投资管理人公开的投资业绩记录完全相符。“我想要研究的这一群成功投资者，他们拥有一位共同的智力族长——本·格雷厄姆。但是这些孩子长大离开这个智力家族后，却是根据非常不同的方法来进行投资的。他们居住在不同的地区，买卖不同的股票和企业，但他们总体的投资业绩绝非是因为他们根据族长的指示所作出完全相同的投资决策，族长只为他们提供了投资决策的思想理论，每位学生都以自己的独特方式来决定如何运用这种理论。”
“来自‘格雷厄姆与多德部落’的投资者共同拥有的智力核心是：寻找企业整体的价值与代表该企业一小部分权益的股票市场价格之间的差异，实质上，他们利用了二者之间的差异，却毫不在意有效市场理论家们所关心的那些问题——股票应该在星期一还是星期二买进，在1月份还是7月份买进等等。简而言之，企业家收购企业的投资方式，正是追随格雷厄姆与多德的投资者在购买流通股票时所采用的投资方式——我十分怀疑有多少企业家会在收购决策中特别强调交易必须在一年中的某个特定月份或一周中的某个特定日子进行。如果企业整体收购在星期一或星期五进行没有任何差别，那么，我无法理解那些学究们为什么会花费大量的时间和精力研究代表该企业一小部分股权的股票交易时间的不同将会对投资业绩有什么影响。”“追随格雷厄姆与多德的投资者根本不会浪费精力去讨论什么 Beta、资本资产定价模型、不同证券投资报酬率之间的协方差，他们对这些东西丝毫也不感兴趣。事实上，他们中的大多数人甚至连这些名词的定义都搞不清楚，追随格雷厄姆与多德的投资人只关心两个变量——价值与价格。”