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Need a new idea? Start at the edge of what is known

We have all probably wondered how great minds achieved what they achieved, right? And the more astonishing their achievements are, the more we call them geniuses, perhaps aliens coming from a different planet, definitely not someone like us. But is that true?

So let me start with an example. You all know the story of Newton's apple, right? OK. Is that true? Probably not. Still, it's difficult to think that no apple at all was there. I mean some stepping stone, some specific conditions that made universal gravitation not impossible to conceive. And definitely this was not impossible, at least for Newton. It was possible, and for some reason, it was also there, available at some point, easy to pick as an apple. Here is the apple.

And what about Einstein? Was relativity theory another big leap in the history of ideas no one else could even conceive? Or rather, was it again something adjacent and possible, to Einstein of course, and he got there by small steps and his very peculiar scientific path? Of course we cannot conceive this path, but this doesn't mean that the path was not there.

So all of this seems very evocative, but I would say hardly concrete if we really want to grasp the origin of great ideas and more generally the way in which the new enters our lives. As a physicist, as a scientist, I have learned that posing the right questions is half of the solution. But I think now we start having a great conceptual framework to conceive and address the right questions. So let me drive you to the edge of what is known, or at least, what I know, and let me show you that what is known could be a powerful and fascinating starting point to grasp the deep meaning of words like novelty, innovation, creativity perhaps.

So we are discussing the "new," and of course, the science behind it. The new can enter our lives in many different ways, can be very personal, like I meet a new person, I read a new book, or I listen to a new song. Or it could be global, I mean, something we call innovation. It could be a new theory, a new technology, but it could also be a new book if you're the writer, or it could be a new song if you're the composer. In all of these global cases, the new is for everyone, but experiencing the new can be also frightening, so the new can also frighten us. But still, experiencing the new means exploring a very peculiar space, the space of what could be, the space of the possible, the space of possibilities. It's a very weird space, so I'll try to get you through this space. So it could be a physical space. So in this case, for instance, novelty could be climbing Machu Picchu for the first time, as I did in 2016. It could be a conceptual space, so acquiring new information, making sense of it, in a word, learning. It could be a biological space. I mean, think about the never-ending fight of viruses and bacteria with our immune system.

And now comes the bad news. We are very, very bad at grasping this space. Think of it. Let's make an experiment. Try to think about all the possible things you could do in the next, say, 24 hours. Here the key word is "all." Of course you can conceive a few options, like having a drink, writing a letter, also sleeping during this boring talk, if you can. But not all of them. So think about an alien invasion, now, here, in Milan, or me -- I stopped thinking for 15 minutes.

So it's very difficult to conceive this space, but actually we have an excuse. So it's not so easy to conceive this space because we are trying to conceive the occurrence of something brand new, so something that never occurred before, so we don't have clues. A typical solution could be looking at the future with the eyes of the past, so relying on all the time series of past events and hoping that this is enough to predict the future. But we know this is not working. For instance, this was the first attempt for weather forecasts, and it failed. And it failed because of the great complexity of the underlying phenomenon. So now we know that predictions had to be based on modeling, which means creating a synthetic model of the system, simulating this model and then projecting the system into the future through this model. And now we can do this in a lot of cases with the help of a lot of data.

Looking at the future with the eye of the past could be misleading also for machines. Think about it. Now picture yourself for a second in the middle of the Australian Outback. You stand there under the sun. So you see something weird happening. The car suddenly stops very, very far from a kangaroo crossing the street. You look closer and you realize that the car has no driver. It is not restarting, even after the kangaroo is not there anymore. So for some reasons, the algorithms driving the car cannot make sense of this strange beast jumping here and there on the street. So it just stops. Now, I should tell you, this is a true story. It happened a few months ago to Volvo's self-driving cars in the middle of the Australian Outback.

我们可能都曾好奇过， 聪明人是怎样有所成就的，对吗？ 并且他们的所作所为越令人惊叹， 我们越习惯于叫他们天才， 或者是“外星人”， 来自另外的星球， 反正绝对不像我们这样普通。 但是，真的是这样吗？

让我来举个例子说明。 我们都知道牛顿的苹果。 那个故事真的发生过吗? 可能没有。 当然，我们很难想象传说中的 苹果其实并不存在。 我的意思是，宇宙万有引力定律的发现 是基于特定环境或媒介的铺垫。 这种说法有一定道理， 至少对于牛顿来说是这样。 这是可能的， 因为一些原因，它就在那里， 像够到那个苹果一样容易， 触手可及。

那么对于爱因斯坦呢？ 相对论是历史上又一大 新思想的飞跃。 除了爱因斯坦， 就没人可以提出了吗？ 或者说，相对论当时 就在我们身边， 对于爱因斯坦也是一样， 他一步步走在自己的科学发现之路上， 最终发现了相对论。 当然我们无从知道 这是一条怎样的路， 但这不能否认那条路的存在。 这两个例子好像暗示了

一些什么，却又不具象， 尤其当我们真的希望 找到变得更优秀的源头， 或通俗一点说，我们怎样 在生活中发现新鲜事物的时候。 作为一个物理学家，科学家， 我知道，提出正确的问题， 问题就解决了一半。 而我想，我们现在已经拥有了 很棒的概念性的框架 来发现和解决问题。 那么现在，让我带大家 进入身边所熟悉的领域， 或至少，是我熟悉的。 让我来说明一下，从熟悉的领域开始 去感知新奇，创新，或者创造 这类词语更深层的含义， 是一个多么好的起点。

我们在讨论“新”， 同时还有它背后的科学。 “新”可以由不同的方式 进入我们的生活， 可以是很私人的， 比如，我认识了一个新朋友， 读了一本新书或者听了一首新歌； 也可以是普遍化的， 比如，我们所说的创新， 可以是新理论，新技术， 同样也可以是一本新书， 前提是你是个作家， 也可以是一首新歌， 如果你是个作曲家。 这所有的例子里的“新”， 是每个人都有机会接触发现的。 但体验“新”却也常常令人担忧， 因为我们面对“新”，会有畏惧感。 同时，体验“新”意味着 我们在探索一段奇特的领域， 它具有任意性， 还有可能性。 这是个很神奇的领域， 不过我会尝试带大家领略一下。 它可以是某个物理空间。 比如， 我在2016年第一次爬上 马丘比丘（古代印加城遗址， 在今秘鲁中南部)。 也可以是理论上的空间， 如获取新的信息， 简而言之，就是学习。 它还可以是生物层次的。 想想我们的免疫系统 与病毒及细菌之间 永不停歇的对抗。

但是先别忙着乐观， 我们非常不擅于察觉到“新”的存在。 想一想是不是这样， 我们来做个实验。 尝试思考在未来的24小时内， 你可以做的所有可能的事情。 记住，关键词是“所有”。 下意识地，你会有几个选择， 比如喝一杯饮料，写封信， 或者在我无聊的陈述中打个小盹， 如果你们想的话。 但这不是所有我们要做的事情。 想一想外星人入侵， 对，就是现在，在米兰， 或者是我，在接下来的 15分钟内停下来不去思考。

所以，要察觉到 所有可能发生的事情并不容易。 但这可以理解。 不容易实现的原因是 我们都尝试着 去发现一些绝对的“新”， 一些以前从未发生的事情， 所以我们找不到任何线索。 那么有什么解决办法吗？ 用目睹了过去的眼睛看未来， 就是凭借着在过去发生的事， 这些经历能支持我们预测未来。 但实际上，这种方法的效果差强人意。 就跟首次播报天气失败了一样。 因为事情多发生在表面， 而内部的复杂性却被忽略了。 所以，我们会通过建模来帮助预测， 就是建立一个系统的综合模型， 通过模型模拟，预测系统的 未来发展。 在很多情况下，基于大量数据， 我们都可以建模。

但用过去的眼睛（数据） 预测未来（系统）， 也可能会出错， 对计算机来说也是一样。 设想一个画面， 你在澳大利亚内陆地区， 站在太阳底下， 看到了一些奇怪的事情。 远远地，一辆车突然停住了， 在它前面很远处 有一只袋鼠在过马路。 你仔细一看， 发现车里竟没有司机。 袋鼠过完马路后， 汽车也没有重新启动。 因为一些原因， 这辆无人驾驶汽车内置的算法 并不能理解这种现象， 一只奇怪的庞然大物 在街上蹦来蹦去。 于是它就停下了。 这是个真实的故事。 几个月前，沃尔沃的 无人驾驶汽车就这样 停在了澳洲内陆中部地区。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读22.5小时。

4S店驶入寒冬

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkAagVh2JUAF46U9-EcZJQ

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/o7VMhY48axbEEWeiOtSiuA

顺风车

昨日阅读1小时，累积阅读380小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读7.5小时

腾讯首席探索官网大为：我想拯救地球 |


https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Sv49M9JRV72luWjfzlyqvg

2019生物医药展望：估值坍塌，行业洗牌，所谓“创新”被挑战

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/afbB0-gvgwJPND3uryWWXQ

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读1925小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读22小时。
力脱思特

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读813小时。

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昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间105小时
Invest Like a Guru – How to generate higher returns at reduced risk with value investing 2017(Charlie Tian)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6755810-1-1.html (Page 60-83)
Buy on Good Companies part 1

阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
These words should forever remain in the minds of investors: “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

To me it is like going into a factory where you have all these assets in there, but they are not functioning. What a steal if I am paying twenty cents on a dollar; but, on the other hand, if I go into another factory and it is just humming . . . . To me the value is in the cash flow, not in the assets. It is the cash generated by the assets where the real value is coming in.

A good company is one that can continuously grow value through its operations. It will be worth more tomorrow than it is today. As opposed to mediocre businesses that erode value over time, a good business can grow its value and do so consistently, as in Yacktman’s analogy. The value of the company rises higher and higher and time is its friend. The relationship between the value and price of good companies is “the value of the business is growing; over time, the stock price will follow the value and also move higher. Because the value of the business is growing—much like love in a marriage—many problems cease to exist.”

Unlike buying mediocre businesses, where investors are forced to sell if the price is getting close to the value and they need to sell before the value erosion hurts the stock price, you only need to buy the stock at a reasonable price, and you don’t have to worry about selling. You can indeed hold the stock forever because its value keeps going up. Of course, stock prices fluctuate, but they always follow the direction of value over the course of time.
Investors can learn a tremendous amount about the quality of the business by simply looking at its historical financial statements. But looking at the financial statements from one year isn’t enough. We should look at the financial statements of companies for at least one business cycle to see how the business has done during good times and bad. You can find the historical financial data of every company that is traded in the United States and in other countries on GuruFocus.com. We compile the historical financial data specifically for this purpose.
The companies are in businesses that, on balance, seem rather mundane. Most sell non-sexy products or services in much the same manner as they did ten years ago (though in larger quantities now, or at higher prices, or both). Berkshire’s experience has been similar. Our managers have produced extraordinary results by doing rather ordinary things—but doing them exceptionally well.
Management can make a difference to the operations of the business. But it is even better if the business is immune to the quality of the management and an idiot can run it. These are the businesses that have the economic moat to protect themselves from mistakes or are relatively inert to management decisions. Think Moody’s or McDonald’s. The success of a business is much more dependent on the nature of the business than on who runs it. Those that require the best managers are usually not there for the long term “because sooner or later any idiot probably is going to be running it.”
An individual investor and minor shareholder rarely has the resources to intimately know the management of a company. The results of operations are mostly decided by the nature of the business rather than management. Buffett likened a poor business to a leaking boat, or a broken car, or a lame horse. It will not do well no matter who rows it, drives it, or rides it.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Robust financial strength is essential for a company’s long-term survivability. Investors may incur permanent loss of capital with those that have weak financial strength. A consistently profitable company with high returns usually generates a lot more cash flow than it needs to grow and doesn’t need to borrow money. Naturally it has great financial strength.
Valuation is extremely important to the overall investment return of investors. The portion overpaid for the stock directly reduces your return by the same amount. But buying a consistently profitable and high-return company and holding it for the long term is more forgiving to your initial valuation. An initial overpay of 20 percent is translated to 1.8 percent a year in underperformance if the holding time is ten years, and 6.2 percent a year if the holding time is three years.
A consistently profitable and high-return company also deserves a higher valuation than others because it can grow its intrinsic value faster. The difference between a good business and a bad business is that good businesses throw up one easy decision after another. The bad businesses throw up painful decisions time after time. Good businesses offer investors the opportunity to make easier decisions and also fewer decisions. All things considered, buying good businesses that are consistently profitable, generating high returns, and growing is paramount. With good companies, other circumstances will take care of themselves. So, we should only invest in good companies and devote our time to strengthen the skills in finding good companies.

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Keep reading "Designing Data-Intensive Applications" part 2 - distributed data which is focus on the distributed part.
Reading Grokking Algorithm to refresh my algorithm knowledge.

1. Reading: 60 minutes - O
2. Side Project(s): 120 minutes - X
3. Code Practices: 60 minutes - O
4. Exercises: 30 minutes - O

昨日阅读1小时，2019年累计阅读36小时。今天继续分享《薛兆丰经济学讲义》：
稀缺、选择、区别对待和歧视这四个概念，其实是一体的，只要有一个就意味着同时有其他三个。也就是说，我们不可能回避歧视，而只能直面歧视，并进一步讨论人在什么情况下会歧视，歧视的条件又是什么，谁来歧视，以及歧视的后果是什么，等等。
我们永远不能避免歧视。例如，资源有限，一块木材，拿来造铅笔，就不能拿来盖房子；时间有限，今晚去看电影，就不能留在家里看电视；金钱有限，买了王菲的唱片，就不能买别人的唱片了。
当我们购买王菲的唱片时，其他歌手在我们这里就被歧视了。如果不喜欢说这是歧视，那换个词，叫区别对待，其实是同一个意思。
我跟太太结婚，也是做了选择。我娶了她，就歧视了世界上其他的女人，也歧视了世界上所有的男人，因为现在有些国家同性也可以结婚了。虽然我想平等对待所有的人，但是法律不允许我这样做。
所以说，只要稀缺不可避免，选择就不可避免，区别对待就不可避免，歧视也就不可避免。
我的感受：
1、稀缺与选择是一体的。人都是理性的动物，精力有限，时间有限，必须做出选择；
2、当我们有选择的时候，就意味着没有被选择的就遭受了歧视；
3、选择在大部分场景中都会出现，我们在选择的时候，会存在机会成本。

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昨日阅读3小时，累积阅读630小时

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昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读164小时。

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约1685小时。
学习和投资心得：
《指数化投资》学习心得：投资策略：避免出错。
1.你本人，而不是股市或经济，才是个人长期投资成功最重要的因素。巴菲特成功的主要原因之一是他避免了历史上的那些重大错误。（随机漫步的傻瓜也提到这个观点避大险！）
2. 巴菲特拒绝投资任何一个自己不了解的公司，而他不了解那些复杂多变的科技公司，也搞不懂这些公司持续高速增长的商业模式。2005-2006年，他基本回避市场上流行的按揭支持证券和金融衍生品。他的观点仍然是过于复杂和不透明。他把这些金融产品叫做“金融界的大规模杀伤性武器”。避免严重的问题，尤其是不必要的风险所带来的问题，是投资成功的重要秘诀之一。投资者往往因为犯下严重的错误而打败自己，这些错误完全可以避免。（不懂坚决不做，提高标准避免黑天鹅）
3. 人类的奋斗中，成功的秘诀是耐心、坚持和避免犯错。开车，就要避免严重车祸；打羽毛球，就要把球打回去；而投资，就要利用指数，来避免大多数投资者深受其害的费用和错误。
4. 关于投资，你需要学的其中最重要的一课是——不要盲目从众，不要被盲目乐观和盲目恐慌的情绪绑架。如果我们确实完成了一次成功的投资决策，我们往往会混淆能力和运气。过度自信是一种普遍存在的缺点。（独立思考独立结合估值去决定仓位）
5. 投资中能够笑到最后的往往是那些长期持有合理投资组合的投资者，他们无论市场如何变动都坚持到底。投资者要斩断预测股市走向的念想。预测，尤其是所谓专家的预测，并不比抛硬币的结果好多少。预测股市，本质上说，就是要预测其他投资者的决策和行为。与此同时，你还要判断这些持不同意见的人将会如何影响股市的走势。前车之鉴：生而为人，我们总是喜欢预知未来。（不要基于预测去做交易）
6. 专家的预测结果险胜随机性结果。讽刺的是，越出名的专家，预测结果的可靠性越差。忽视预测你就能省下大量的时间、精力，还能少为错误的预测花冤枉钱。
7. 盲目乐观的情绪会传染，恐慌的情绪也会迅速蔓延，因此人们总是在高买低卖，而没能做到理性地高抛低吸。关于投资，你需要学的其中最重要的一课是——不要盲目从众，不要被盲目乐观或盲目恐慌的情绪绑架。当心“市场先生”。投资这件事就好比养育孩子，必须持续不断地付出知道他们长大成人。（基于长期的逻辑去做投资，不从众）
8. 关于技术分析：任何明显的“模式”一经发现就不再存在，因为大家都想利用它赚钱。（保守认同）最后，让你的投资费用最小化就能增加你的投资收益。

昨日阅读一小时，stumble on happiness,67%->69%，累积阅读时间16小时

昨天报名2月学习计划挑战后，把昨天的学习情况登记到昨天的帖子里（4h）。
我登记今天的学习情况吧：
1、阅读了《Your Statistical Consultant ：Answers to your Data Analysis Questions》25页——1个小时。
2、在网易公开课上听了一集哈佛大学公开课《幸福课》——1小时
https://open.163.com/movie/2006/1/1/9/M6HV755O6_M6HV8DF19.html
3、摘抄了书中遇到的新的英文单词和句子——1小时

共计3小时，累计7小时

强烈推荐网易公开课，这里有很多原版英文视频，并且都是中英双语，特别适合练习英语听力的人学习。并且包含各种学科分类，一定会找到你感兴趣的主题。

昨日阅读2小时，累积阅读50小时

昨日阅读1小时， 总共阅读218小时。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读605小时。

20190203昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读209小时。