【出版时间及名称】：2010年中国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：91
        【目录或简介】：
A liquidity call: It is extremely difficult to form a market strategy for 2010, as
if it were based purely on fundamentals and valuation, the market does not
have much potential upside after the 2009 rally. However, we do not rule out
the possibility of another major liquidity bubble, similar to the one in 2007.
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Index targets: In 2010, fair value and potential upside will depend largely on
earnings growth forecasts. We expect EPS for the HSCEI and Shanghai A
Index to rise 25% and 15% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, whereas the
MSCI China’s earnings growth could be slightly slower at 20% and 15%, in
these two years. Consequently, based on our DDM, 12-month fair value
targets for the MSCI China, the HSCEI and the Shanghai A Index are 65,
15,000 (up from 14,000 previously) and 3,300, respectively.
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Long-term story: We think consumption is probably the next growth driver,
but it may take a few years to develop and one key constraint is income
distribution. However, if this direction of economic development continues,
we expect the weighting of consumer-related industries to increase
meaningfully. Furthermore, the sectors that dominate the market, such as
banks, energy and telecoms, could see their importance declining.
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How to position: We have been OVERWEIGHT consumer-related sectors
but they have now become crowded and expensive. Therefore in the next six
to nine months, we recommend doing a quality-for-valuation trade on these
sectors and maintain the sector weighting. Our biggest UNDERWEIGHT is
energy. Also, we think that banks and IPPs could be interesting sectors when
the economy recovers and improves. Lastly, we have made some minor
changes to our model portfolio, including downgrading the property sector
from MARKET WEIGHT to a small UNDERWEIGHT.