【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：
Over the next few months, we expect the market to be buoyed by good macro
and earnings data, but we see a few major medium-term risks:
■ Emerging property bubble: Before any meaningful correction, property
transactions rebound strongly. Due to price rises, affordability, a high
percentage of investors versus consumers and potential bank loan exposure,
we worry that a property bubble is emerging in China, and the government’s
credibility in managing the property market is reducing rapidly.
■ UDIC debt – where there is a will, there is a way: Despite the size of the
Urban Development and Investment Corporation’s (UDIC) debt (Rmb12 tn by
the end of 2010), we believe it is manageable. Firstly, under the current
‘closed’ banking system, banks have time to restructure debt even if the value
of the land collateral drops. Secondly, including the UDIC debt, China’s public
debt is still less than 60% of GDP. We believe the UDIC’s debt loss will be
shared between the central government, local governments and banks.
■ Inflation – a serious medium-term concern: We believe inflation will not
rise quickly in the short term, but the inability of the government to control
loan growth and the property market could result in inflation being a serious
problem ahead.
■ Market strategy: Over the next few months, the valuation gap between noncyclical
growth sectors and cyclical sectors will reduce, i.e., cyclical sectors
could outperform. However, for long-term investment, we still favour noncyclical
growth sectors, as they are exposed to the healthier parts of the
economy